Current forecasts for São Paulo’s overnight minimum temperature show tight clustering around 12–14°C due to moderate radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds, with model consensus from global ensembles indicating limited further drop. Urban heat island effects and higher humidity levels are moderating the nocturnal temperature decline compared to rural stations, while recent atmospheric conditions tied to a neutral ENSO phase have produced typical early-spring variability rather than strong cold advection. Traders assign roughly equal implied probabilities to the 12°C, 13°C, and 14°C thresholds because small differences in cloud timing or wind speed can shift the official INMET reading by 1–2°C. The 25% market-implied chance of 10°C or below reflects residual downside risk if clearer skies develop overnight, though historical September minima average near 13°C at the primary observation site.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Sao Paulo am 15. September?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Sao Paulo am 15. September?
12°C 44%
13°C 40%
10°C oder weniger 25%
11°C 7%
NEU
NEU
15. Sep. 2026
10°C oder weniger
25%
11°C
7%
12°C
44%
13°C
25%
14°C
46%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C oder höher
<1%
12°C 44%
13°C 40%
10°C oder weniger 25%
11°C 7%
NEU
NEU
15. Sep. 2026
10°C oder weniger
$71 Vol.
25%
11°C
$49 Vol.
7%
12°C
$42 Vol.
44%
13°C
$5 Vol.
25%
14°C
$5 Vol.
46%
15°C
$286 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$127 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$22 Vol.
<1%
20°C oder höher
$22 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts for São Paulo’s overnight minimum temperature show tight clustering around 12–14°C due to moderate radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds, with model consensus from global ensembles indicating limited further drop. Urban heat island effects and higher humidity levels are moderating the nocturnal temperature decline compared to rural stations, while recent atmospheric conditions tied to a neutral ENSO phase have produced typical early-spring variability rather than strong cold advection. Traders assign roughly equal implied probabilities to the 12°C, 13°C, and 14°C thresholds because small differences in cloud timing or wind speed can shift the official INMET reading by 1–2°C. The 25% market-implied chance of 10°C or below reflects residual downside risk if clearer skies develop overnight, though historical September minima average near 13°C at the primary observation site.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
Volumen
$646Enddatum
15. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts for São Paulo’s overnight minimum temperature show tight clustering around 12–14°C due to moderate radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds, with model consensus from global ensembles indicating limited further drop. Urban heat island effects and higher humidity levels are moderating the nocturnal temperature decline compared to rural stations, while recent atmospheric conditions tied to a neutral ENSO phase have produced typical early-spring variability rather than strong cold advection. Traders assign roughly equal implied probabilities to the 12°C, 13°C, and 14°C thresholds because small differences in cloud timing or wind speed can shift the official INMET reading by 1–2°C. The 25% market-implied chance of 10°C or below reflects residual downside risk if clearer skies develop overnight, though historical September minima average near 13°C at the primary observation site.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$646Enddatum
15. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts for São Paulo’s overnight minimum temperature show tight clustering around 12–14°C due to moderate radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds, with model consensus from global ensembles indicating limited further drop. Urban heat island effects and higher humidity levels are moderating the nocturnal temperature decline compared to rural stations, while recent atmospheric conditions tied to a neutral ENSO phase have produced typical early-spring variability rather than strong cold advection. Traders assign roughly equal implied probabilities to the 12°C, 13°C, and 14°C thresholds because small differences in cloud timing or wind speed can shift the official INMET reading by 1–2°C. The 25% market-implied chance of 10°C or below reflects residual downside risk if clearer skies develop overnight, though historical September minima average near 13°C at the primary observation site.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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