**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on August 27 most likely in the mid- to upper-20s Celsius, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around 26°C and 27°C (combined ~58% implied probability).** Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble outputs highlight persistent cloud cover and scattered showers expected overnight, which limit radiative cooling under humid conditions (dew points near 24–25°C). This reduces the typical nocturnal temperature drop compared with clearer August nights. Light northeasterly or southeasterly winds and the urban heat-island effect in the Tokyo metro area further support elevated minimums around 25–27°C. Recent days have shown similar patterns, with observed overnight lows near 24–26°C amid comparable moisture and instability. The 25°C outcome (16%) remains plausible if clearer breaks allow slightly more cooling, while extremes below 24°C or at/above 28°C carry low probability given model consensus and current atmospheric moisture. New high-resolution model runs and updated JMA briefings tomorrow morning represent the next key data points that could refine resolution probabilities before the overnight period.