Trader sentiment for May U.S. inflation centers on a closely contested CPI release, with market-implied odds clustered around 4.2% to 4.4% annual growth. The 4.3% outcome leads at 36% probability, edging out 32.5% for 4.4% or higher and 25% for 4.2%, as traders balance resilient labor market conditions against moderating headline pressures. This distribution reflects uncertainty over core inflation trends and the lingering effects of prior monetary policy tightening. Key upcoming data releases and Federal Reserve communications will likely influence these probabilities as resolution approaches.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert4.3% 36%
≥4,4 % 33%
4.2% 25%
4.1% 9%
$12,782 Vol.
$12,782 Vol.
≤3,3 %
<1%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
1%
3.6%
<1%
3.7%
1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
2%
4.0%
1%
4.1%
9%
4.2%
25%
4.3%
36%
≥4,4 %
33%
4.3% 36%
≥4,4 % 33%
4.2% 25%
4.1% 9%
$12,782 Vol.
$12,782 Vol.
≤3,3 %
<1%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
1%
3.6%
<1%
3.7%
1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
2%
4.0%
1%
4.1%
9%
4.2%
25%
4.3%
36%
≥4,4 %
33%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Markt eröffnet: May 12, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for May U.S. inflation centers on a closely contested CPI release, with market-implied odds clustered around 4.2% to 4.4% annual growth. The 4.3% outcome leads at 36% probability, edging out 32.5% for 4.4% or higher and 25% for 4.2%, as traders balance resilient labor market conditions against moderating headline pressures. This distribution reflects uncertainty over core inflation trends and the lingering effects of prior monetary policy tightening. Key upcoming data releases and Federal Reserve communications will likely influence these probabilities as resolution approaches.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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