With no active tropical disturbances in the Atlantic basin as of May 13, per National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports, traders price a 94.5% implied probability against a named storm—defined as sustained winds of at least 39 mph—forming before the official June 1 start. Mid-May conditions feature unfavorable high wind shear, dry Saharan air intrusions, and sea surface temperatures below optimal thresholds for genesis, aligning with climatological rarity (fewer than 10% of seasons see pre-season activity). NHC tropical outlooks resume May 15, but models show no development signals. A sudden tropical wave off Africa or Caribbean could challenge this if shear relaxes and organization accelerates unexpectedly.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertBenannte Sturmformen vor der Hurrikan-Saison?
Benannte Sturmformen vor der Hurrikan-Saison?
Ja
$340,689 Vol.
$340,689 Vol.
Ja
$340,689 Vol.
$340,689 Vol.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...With no active tropical disturbances in the Atlantic basin as of May 13, per National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports, traders price a 94.5% implied probability against a named storm—defined as sustained winds of at least 39 mph—forming before the official June 1 start. Mid-May conditions feature unfavorable high wind shear, dry Saharan air intrusions, and sea surface temperatures below optimal thresholds for genesis, aligning with climatological rarity (fewer than 10% of seasons see pre-season activity). NHC tropical outlooks resume May 15, but models show no development signals. A sudden tropical wave off Africa or Caribbean could challenge this if shear relaxes and organization accelerates unexpectedly.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen