Incumbent Republican Claudia Tenney holds a commanding position in New York’s 24th congressional district, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Republican Party. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+11, making it the most Republican-leaning seat in the state, and forecasters from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Tenney won reelection in 2024 with roughly 66 percent of the vote and faces no primary opposition, while Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman, who prevailed in her June 2026 primary, trails significantly in fundraising. The district’s consistent partisan performance and Tenney’s incumbency advantages underpin the current pricing. Late-cycle national shifts, an unforeseen scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability based on available evidence.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNY-24 Wahlsieger
NY-24 Wahlsieger
$20,538 Vol.
$20,538 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
93%
Demokratische Partei
8%
$20,538 Vol.
$20,538 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
$10,918 Vol.
93%
Demokratische Partei
$9,620 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Claudia Tenney holds a commanding position in New York’s 24th congressional district, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Republican Party. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+11, making it the most Republican-leaning seat in the state, and forecasters from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Tenney won reelection in 2024 with roughly 66 percent of the vote and faces no primary opposition, while Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman, who prevailed in her June 2026 primary, trails significantly in fundraising. The district’s consistent partisan performance and Tenney’s incumbency advantages underpin the current pricing. Late-cycle national shifts, an unforeseen scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability based on available evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$20,538Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Claudia Tenney holds a commanding position in New York’s 24th congressional district, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Republican Party. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+11, making it the most Republican-leaning seat in the state, and forecasters from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Tenney won reelection in 2024 with roughly 66 percent of the vote and faces no primary opposition, while Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman, who prevailed in her June 2026 primary, trails significantly in fundraising. The district’s consistent partisan performance and Tenney’s incumbency advantages underpin the current pricing. Late-cycle national shifts, an unforeseen scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability based on available evidence.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$20,538Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Claudia Tenney holds a commanding position in New York’s 24th congressional district, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Republican Party. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+11, making it the most Republican-leaning seat in the state, and forecasters from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Tenney won reelection in 2024 with roughly 66 percent of the vote and faces no primary opposition, while Democratic nominee Alissa Ellman, who prevailed in her June 2026 primary, trails significantly in fundraising. The district’s consistent partisan performance and Tenney’s incumbency advantages underpin the current pricing. Late-cycle national shifts, an unforeseen scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability based on available evidence.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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