The 2028 presidential field remains fragmented according to current trader consensus, with no single contender exceeding 19 percent implied probability and the top names clustered closely together. Republican figures such as JD Vance hold a modest edge, potentially tied to post-2024 party positioning, while Democratic prospects including Gavin Newsom and Marco Rubio draw comparable attention amid early speculation over nominations. The tight distribution stems from the extended timeline, absence of formal declarations by most candidates, and uncertainty surrounding the 2026 midterms that could reshape party dynamics. Upcoming primary contests, polling movements, or major policy announcements on issues like the economy and foreign affairs may consolidate support and produce clearer separation in these probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertRon DeSantis gains momentum after policy speech on immigration enforcement
Ron DeSantis rises to 4%2%
Ron DeSantis delivered a high‑profile speech outlining a new immigration enforcement plan, which resonated with his base and lifted his market price from 2% to 4% over the following days.
Marco Rubio’s price rises amid Winter Olympics and speculation
Marco Rubio rises to 15%4%
Marco Rubio’s price increased from 11% to 15% in early May, likely influenced by his role in the US delegation to the Winter Olympics alongside JD Vance and growing speculation about his presidential ambitions.
Marco Rubio’s market price rises amid increased political activity
Marco Rubio rises to 14%3%
Marco Rubio’s market price increased from 11% to 14%, likely reflecting growing political engagement and endorsements, including his support for JD Vance’s potential presidential bid.
JD Vance and Jake Paul attend US women’s hockey game at Winter Olympics
JD Vance rises to 22%3%
JD Vance's public appearance with influencer Jake Paul at a US women's hockey game during the Winter Olympics drew media attention, reinforcing his public profile and appeal. This event coincided with a price increase for Vance from 19% to 22%.
Kamala Harris price increases
Kamala Harris rises to 5%2%
Kamala Harris's market price saw a slight increase, potentially reflecting renewed interest or developments in her political standing as the 2028 cycle approaches.
JD Vance attends U.S. women's hockey games at Winter Olympics with family and Jake Paul
JD Vance rises to 22%3%
JD Vance's attendance at U.S. women's hockey games at the Winter Olympics, alongside his family and influencer Jake Paul, increased his public profile and engagement with popular culture, contributing to a brief price increase in his market odds.
U.S. delegation led by JD Vance and Marco Rubio to attend 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony
Marco Rubio rises to 12%3%
The White House announced that Vice President JD Vance will lead an American delegation, joined by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, to the opening ceremony of the Milan‑Cortina Winter Olympics, boosting Rubio’s visibility ahead of the market’s rise in early May.
JD Vance and Marco Rubio lead U.S. delegation at 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony
Marco Rubio rises to 11%1%
JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio attended the opening ceremony of the Milan Cortina Winter Olympics as part of the U.S. delegation, increasing their public visibility and positively impacting their market prices, especially Rubio's which rose from 9% to 14%.
JD Vance leads US delegation at 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony in Italy
JD Vance rises to 19%1%
JD Vance was announced to lead the US delegation to the Milan Cortina Winter Olympics, attending the opening ceremony alongside Marco Rubio. This high-profile diplomatic and public engagement increased market confidence in Vance's prominence and viability as a presidential candidate, boosting his price from 18% to 19%.
Second Lady Usha Vance announces fourth child, boosting JD Vance’s public profile
The pregnancy announcement highlighted the vice president’s family life and pro‑family stance, leading to a modest uptick in JD Vance’s market price as voters perceived increased personal appeal.
Vice President JD Vance announces fourth child on social media
JD Vance dips to 18%1%
JD Vance and second lady Usha Vance revealed they are expecting a son due in July, a personal announcement that briefly lowered Vance's odds as attention shifted to family matters before stabilizing.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidential bid
JD Vance rises to 22%3%
Turning Point USA, led by Erika Kirk, publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance for the 2028 presidential election and began organizing grassroots support in key early primary states, boosting Vance's perceived viability and causing a temporary price increase.
JD Vance and Usha Vance announce expecting fourth child
JD Vance and his wife announced they are expecting their fourth child, a personal milestone that may have positively influenced perceptions of Vance’s family values and electability, supporting his steady market price around 19%.
JD Vance touts Trump administration’s anti-abortion record at March for Life
JD Vance highlighted the Trump administration's achievements against abortion rights at the March for Life rally, reinforcing his conservative credentials and appealing to pro-life voters.
Ohio man charged with threatening to kill Vice President JD Vance
JD Vance dips to 19%2%
The arrest of a man for threatening to kill Vance heightened security concerns and political tensions, contributing to a decline in Vance's market price due to perceived risks.
Second lady Usha Vance announces pregnancy with fourth child
Usha Vance announced she is pregnant with their fourth child, a personal milestone that humanized JD Vance and may have positively influenced his market perception.
JD Vance visits Armenian Genocide Memorial, deletes social media post
JD Vance dips to 25%2%
JD Vance visited the Armenian Genocide Memorial but deleted a social media post referring to it as 'genocide,' reflecting diplomatic sensitivity and causing mixed reactions that may have influenced his market perception.
JD Vance addresses Turning Point USA convention amid Republican discord
JD Vance rises to 26%2%
JD Vance delivered a speech at Turning Point USA's AmericaFest, advocating inclusivity in conservatism and receiving endorsement from the influential group, which bolstered his standing among Republican voters.
Marco Rubio's market price peaks
Marco Rubio jumps to 15%6%
Marco Rubio's market price saw a notable increase, reflecting growing speculation about his political future and potential role in the 2028 election cycle.
Marco Rubio joins Vance at Winter Olympics, raising his profile
Marco Rubio jumps to 15%8%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s appearance alongside Vance at the Olympics provided Rubio with a visibility boost, coinciding with his price jump from 7% to 15% over the month.
Turning Point USA reaffirms support for JD Vance amid conservative discord
JD Vance rises to 28%2%
Turning Point USA publicly reaffirmed its support for JD Vance during its AmericaFest convention, solidifying his position as a leading conservative candidate.
JD Vance attends U.S. women's hockey game with Jake Paul at Winter Olympics
JD Vance's attendance at a high-profile Olympic event alongside celebrity Jake Paul garnered media attention, maintaining his public profile and supporting his market position.
JD Vance touts Trump administration’s record against abortion at March for Life rally
JD Vance rises to 30%3%
Vance's public endorsement of the Trump administration's anti-abortion policies at a major rally reinforced his conservative credentials, impacting his market price positively among right-leaning supporters.
JD Vance criticized for refusing to denounce bigotry at Turning Point USA event
JD Vance dips to 27%4%
JD Vance's speech at Turning Point USA, where he declined to condemn antisemitism and bigotry, sparked controversy within conservative circles, leading to a decline in his market price as some supporters questioned his stance.
JD Vance and Jake Paul attend U.S. women’s hockey game at Winter Olympics
JD Vance rises to 30%2%
Vance's attendance at a high-profile Olympic event alongside influencer Jake Paul increased his public profile and positively affected his market price, reflecting broader appeal and media coverage.
JD Vance attends U.S. women's hockey game with Jake Paul at Winter Olympics
JD Vance rises to 30%2%
JD Vance's attendance at a high-profile U.S. women's hockey game alongside influencer Jake Paul at the Winter Olympics increased his media exposure and public engagement, potentially boosting his market appeal.
JD Vance leads U.S. delegation at 2026 Winter Olympics opening ceremony in Italy
JD Vance rises to 28%3%
Vance's prominent role as head of the U.S. delegation at the Winter Olympics opening ceremony increased his visibility and positively influenced his market price, showcasing his diplomatic and public engagement.
Marco Rubio attends Winter Olympics opening ceremony with JD Vance
Marco Rubio rises to 10%3%
Rubio’s presence alongside Vance at the opening ceremony underscored his diplomatic credentials, prompting a sharp rise in his market price from 7% to 10% as investors viewed him as a viable contender.
Vice President JD Vance leads U.S. delegation to 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan
JD Vance dips to 21%3%
Vance’s appearance at the opening ceremony and his public support for U.S. athletes raised his visibility on the world stage, but mixed reactions—including boos—tempered the boost, coinciding with a modest price dip from 24% to 21% as the market reassessed his broader appeal.
Vandalism incident at JD Vance’s Ohio home draws national attention
The break‑in and subsequent legal proceedings kept Vance in the news cycle, temporarily stabilizing his market price at 27% as the incident highlighted security concerns without materially affecting his campaign momentum.
Ohio man charged with threatening to kill Vice President JD Vance
JD Vance dips to 27%4%
An Ohio man was charged with threatening to kill Vice President JD Vance, raising security concerns and possibly impacting market perceptions of Vance's vulnerability and public profile.
Ohio man charged with threatening to kill Vice President JD Vance
JD Vance dips to 26%1%
An Ohio man was charged with threatening to kill Vice President JD Vance, highlighting security threats and possibly affecting public perception of Vance's vulnerability.
Man vandalizes JD Vance's Ohio home and is detained
JD Vance dips to 27%4%
A man armed with a hammer vandalized JD Vance's Ohio home, leading to his detention and federal charges, raising security concerns around Vance and impacting his public profile.
Vandalism at JD Vance's Ohio home
JD Vance dips to 27%3%
An incident involving vandalism at JD Vance's home in Ohio drew significant media attention, highlighting the security challenges faced by high-profile political figures.
JD Vance leads U.S. delegation to Winter Olympics opening ceremony
JD Vance dips to 27%4%
Vance’s role as head of the American Olympic delegation raised his international profile and signaled strong administration support, nudging his price upward from 31% to 27% as investors reassessed his electability.
Man arrested after vandalizing JD Vance’s Ohio home
JD Vance dips to 29%1%
A security incident involving vandalism at JD Vance’s residence brought media attention and sympathy, reinforcing his public profile and possibly affecting market perceptions of his resilience and security.
Man vandalizes Vice President JD Vance’s Ohio home, arrested by Secret Service
JD Vance dips to 27%3%
A security incident where a man broke windows and damaged property at Vance's Ohio residence led to increased media attention and market volatility, reflecting concerns about his safety and political stability.
JD Vance’s family expecting fourth child draws positive public reaction
JD Vance dips to 31%1%
The announcement of Vance’s fourth child generated favorable media coverage and reinforced his pro‑family image, contributing to a modest rise in his market price from 32% to 31% as the news circulated.
Erika Kirk endorses JD Vance for president
JD Vance rises to 32%2%
The endorsement of JD Vance by Erika Kirk, leader of Turning Point USA, provided a major boost to his campaign, signaling strong organizational support for his potential 2028 bid.
Vice President JD Vance publicly defends his wife against racist attacks
JD Vance rises to 32%2%
JD Vance strongly condemned attacks on his wife Usha Vance, including racist comments by right-wing podcaster Nick Fuentes, reinforcing his public image as a protective and principled figure, which helped stabilize his market price.
JD Vance’s March for Life appearance boosts his profile
JD Vance rises to 30%2%
Vice President Vance’s high‑visibility speech at the annual March for Life highlighted his pro‑family agenda, leading traders to increase confidence in his presidential prospects, pushing his price from 28% to 30%.
JD Vance announces fourth child, boosting family‑values image
JD Vance rises to 32%2%
Vance’s public announcement of expecting a fourth child reinforced his pro‑family platform, contributing to a modest price rise from 30% to 32% as family‑oriented voters responded positively.
Suspect arrested for vandalizing JD Vance's Ohio home
JD Vance rises to 31%1%
A man was detained and charged for breaking windows and damaging property at JD Vance's Ohio residence, highlighting security concerns around Vance and possibly affecting his market support due to increased media attention and sympathy.
JD Vance defends his wife against racist attacks
JD Vance rises to 32%2%
Vice President JD Vance strongly defended his wife Usha Vance against racist attacks, reinforcing his public image and possibly stabilizing his market support.
Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez announces run for president in 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 8%1%
AOC’s entry into the presidential race attracted progressive voters but also polarized the electorate, leading to a price dip from 9% to 8% as some investors reassessed her electability.
JD Vance criticizes Israel's parliament vote on West Bank annexation
JD Vance publicly criticized Israel's parliament vote on West Bank annexation, reflecting his foreign policy stance and possibly affecting his support among conservative voters.
Supreme Court hears Republican challenge to campaign‑finance limits, Vance joins case
Marco Rubio rises to 8%1%
The Court’s hearing on a GOP effort to lift party‑spending caps featured Vice President Vance as a plaintiff, raising his national profile and indirectly benefiting fellow Republican Marco Rubio, whose price rose from 7% to 8% shortly after.
Tucker Carlson endorses JD Vance for president
Tucker Carlson plunges to 1%49%
Tucker Carlson's strong endorsement of JD Vance at the AmericaFest convention solidified his position as the preferred successor in the Trump coalition, causing a significant spike in his market price.
Tucker Carlson’s market price crashes after opening‑ceremony backlash at Milan‑Cortina Olympics
Tucker Carlson plunges to 1%49%
During the opening ceremony, cameras showed Carlson receiving jeers, leading to a rapid loss of support for him as a presidential contender. His price fell from 50% to 1% within days.
JD Vance leads U.S. delegation at Winter Olympics opening ceremony
JD Vance rises to 30%2%
Vance’s high‑profile role at the Milan‑Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics raised his visibility internationally, coinciding with a sharp drop in Tucker Carlson’s price as attention shifted to Vance.
Josh Shapiro wins Pennsylvania gubernatorial re‑election
Josh Shapiro rises to 8%1%
Shapiro’s decisive victory in Pennsylvania reinforced his political standing, modestly increasing his market price from 7% to 8% as he emerged as a potential national contender.
Jon Ossoff secures key Senate committee chairmanship
Jon Ossoff rises to 4%1%
Ossoff’s elevation to a prominent committee role raised his national profile, nudging his market price upward from 3% to 4% as his legislative influence grew.
Federal judge orders suspect in JD Vance home vandalism to remain jailed
JD Vance dips to 27%1%
A judge kept the alleged vandal of Vance’s Ohio home in custody, underscoring the seriousness of the attack. The incident hurt Vance’s standing, contributing to a price drop from 28% to 27% by early August.
Vice President JD Vance announces fourth child on social media
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Vance and his wife Usha revealed they are expecting a son, highlighting his family values and pro‑birth agenda, which lifted his market price from 19% to 28% as voters saw him as a relatable family man.
Vice President JD Vance announces fourth child on the way
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Vance and his wife Usha posted that they are expecting a son due in late July. The pro‑family news boosted Vance’s personal popularity, lifting his market price from 19% to 28% over the next two weeks.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidency
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Turning Point USA announced it will back Vice President JD Vance in early primary states, signaling organized grassroots support and boosting his market price from 19% to 28% shortly after.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 presidential run
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
Turning Point USA, a major conservative grassroots organization, publicly endorsed Vice President JD Vance as a potential successor to President Trump, signaling strong conservative support and boosting Vance's market price early in the window.
Second lady Usha Vance announces pregnancy of fourth child
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
The announcement that Vice President JD Vance and his wife Usha are expecting their fourth child in late July 2025 positively influenced Vance's market price, reflecting increased public interest and perceived stability in his personal life.
Vice President JD Vance and wife announce expecting fourth child
JD Vance jumps to 28%9%
JD Vance and his wife Usha announced they are expecting their fourth child, reinforcing Vance's pro-family image and potentially boosting his appeal among conservative voters, which likely contributed to his price increase in mid-2025.
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