The RBNZ’s July 2026 hike of the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.50%—its first increase in three years—has anchored trader expectations for further tightening at the September 2 Monetary Policy Statement. Persistent headline inflation pressures, with forecasts peaking near 4.3% in Q3 before easing toward the 2% target midpoint by mid-2027, combined with resilient growth prospects and reduced spare capacity, continue to support a hawkish policy path. Recent business inflation expectations around 2.5% over two years and analyst projections for additional OCR increases this year reinforce the 88% implied probability of a September hike, while downside risks from easing energy prices keep the no-change scenario at 12%. The upcoming statement will provide updated projections on inflation trajectories and the pace of normalization.