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icon for Trump kündigt Waffenstillstand zwischen den USA und dem Iran bis zum...?
Geopolitik·Iran

Trump kündigt Waffenstillstand zwischen den USA und dem Iran bis zum...?

icon for Trump kündigt Waffenstillstand zwischen den USA und dem Iran bis zum...?
Geopolitik·Iran

Trump kündigt Waffenstillstand zwischen den USA und dem Iran bis zum...?

$4,489,013 Vol.

1. Juli 2026
Polymarket

$4,489,013 Vol.

Polymarket

30. Juni

$1,511,789 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities. Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.**Recent US-Iran developments center on the mid-June 2026 framework agreement and memorandum of understanding signed by President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.** This deal extends the prior ceasefire for 60 days, enables toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, lifts the U.S. naval blockade, and launches follow-on negotiations over Iran's nuclear program and related issues. Both sides have confirmed the MOU is in effect, with a formal signing ceremony anticipated shortly, though implementation details remain subject to further talks. The truce follows months of intermittent violations, missile exchanges, and maritime tensions since the initial April 2026 Pakistan-brokered pause. Trader focus on the timing of any Trump announcement declaring the ceasefire over reflects uncertainty over compliance, nuclear sticking points, Israeli positioning, and potential escalation triggers within the 60-day window. Scheduled diplomatic steps and any reported breaches will likely influence assessments of durability.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.

Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.

The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.

Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.

Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.

Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.

Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Volumen
$4,489,013
Enddatum
30. Juni 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jun 8, 2026, 9:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities. Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities. Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.**Recent US-Iran developments center on the mid-June 2026 framework agreement and memorandum of understanding signed by President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.** This deal extends the prior ceasefire for 60 days, enables toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, lifts the U.S. naval blockade, and launches follow-on negotiations over Iran's nuclear program and related issues. Both sides have confirmed the MOU is in effect, with a formal signing ceremony anticipated shortly, though implementation details remain subject to further talks. The truce follows months of intermittent violations, missile exchanges, and maritime tensions since the initial April 2026 Pakistan-brokered pause. Trader focus on the timing of any Trump announcement declaring the ceasefire over reflects uncertainty over compliance, nuclear sticking points, Israeli positioning, and potential escalation triggers within the 60-day window. Scheduled diplomatic steps and any reported breaches will likely influence assessments of durability.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.

Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.

The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.

Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.

Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.

Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.

Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Volumen
$4,489,013
Enddatum
30. Juni 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jun 8, 2026, 9:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities. Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Trump kündigt Waffenstillstand zwischen den USA und dem Iran bis zum...?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 4 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „30. Juni" mit 4%, gefolgt von „8. Juni" mit 0%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 4¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 4% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Trump kündigt Waffenstillstand zwischen den USA und dem Iran bis zum...?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $4.5 million generiert, seit der Markt am Jun 8, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Trump kündigt Waffenstillstand zwischen den USA und dem Iran bis zum...?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 4 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Dies ist ein offener Markt. Der aktuelle Spitzenreiter für „Trump kündigt Waffenstillstand zwischen den USA und dem Iran bis zum...?" ist „30. Juni" mit nur 4%, dicht gefolgt von „8. Juni" mit 0%. Da kein Ergebnis eine starke Mehrheit hat, sehen Händler dies als hochgradig unsicher an, was einzigartige Handelsmöglichkeiten bieten kann. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert – speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Trump kündigt Waffenstillstand zwischen den USA und dem Iran bis zum...?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.