Traders assign a 98.6% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by the end of 2026 primarily because the remaining timeframe is too brief for the large-scale amphibious and logistics preparations required for such an operation. Ongoing gray-zone activities, including early-November deployments of over 100 vessels in area-denial drills across the western Pacific and routine air sorties into Taiwan’s ADIZ, represent sustained pressure rather than invasion precursors. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent statements have emphasized peaceful reunification without reference to force. These patterns align with assessments that major military readiness gaps persist. Late diplomatic shifts at the upcoming APEC summit or unforeseen escalatory miscalculations remain the principal low-probability variables that could still influence the outcome before year-end.