Traders assign a 97.2 percent implied probability that North Korea will not launch an invasion of South Korea before 2027, reflecting the short remaining window through year-end and the absence of detectable large-scale conventional preparations. Relations remain at a historic low following North Korea’s constitutional changes designating Seoul as principal enemy and removing reunification goals, yet Pyongyang has channeled tensions into repeated short-range ballistic missile tests and border incursions rather than offensive mobilization. Robust U.S.-South Korea extended deterrence, trilateral exercises with Japan, and North Korea’s emphasis on nuclear and naval capabilities create high barriers to full-scale action. Recent diplomatic signals from Washington and Seoul have drawn limited North Korean engagement but no shift toward conflict. Realistic tail risks include sudden escalation from miscalculation during drills, major external shocks involving third parties, or unforeseen leadership developments that could compress decision timelines.