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Geopolitik·Ukraine-Karte

Wird Russland Mykolaivka erobern bis...?

icon for Wird Russland Mykolaivka erobern bis...?
Geopolitik·Ukraine-Karte

Wird Russland Mykolaivka erobern bis...?

NEU
31. Okt. 2026
Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

Polymarket

31. Oktober

$0 Vol.

24%

31. Dezember

$0 Vol.

48%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.854785° N, 37.770676° E in Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location in Mykolaivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/M1-9c93c30975.png Mykolaivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/m2-2562dd2b47.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vaMZNEQuFL2b4JNPA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces are conducting small-unit infiltrations and incremental assaults toward Mykolaivka positions east of Slovyansk and in the broader Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka axis in Donetsk Oblast, supported by glide bomb strikes and drone adaptations to counter Ukrainian FPV and air defenses. Ukrainian troops maintain active resistance with counterattacks and drone interdiction, while Russian units report fuel shortages, manpower attrition, and difficult terrain that have slowed the pace of gains. Recent reporting from late July and early August 2026 highlights ongoing efforts by Russian formations such as the 3rd Combined Arms Army to expand footholds near Rai-Oleksandrivka and Kryva Luka, though full consolidation of Mykolaivka remains contested amid Ukrainian defensive adjustments. Upcoming developments in the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk direction could influence timelines depending on Russian mechanized commitments and Ukrainian reinforcement flows.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.854785° N, 37.770676° E in Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location in Mykolaivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/M1-9c93c30975.png

Mykolaivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/m2-2562dd2b47.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vaMZNEQuFL2b4JNPA

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volumen
$0
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 21, 2026, 2:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.854785° N, 37.770676° E in Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location in Mykolaivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/M1-9c93c30975.png Mykolaivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/m2-2562dd2b47.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vaMZNEQuFL2b4JNPA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.854785° N, 37.770676° E in Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location in Mykolaivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/M1-9c93c30975.png Mykolaivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/m2-2562dd2b47.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vaMZNEQuFL2b4JNPA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces are conducting small-unit infiltrations and incremental assaults toward Mykolaivka positions east of Slovyansk and in the broader Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka axis in Donetsk Oblast, supported by glide bomb strikes and drone adaptations to counter Ukrainian FPV and air defenses. Ukrainian troops maintain active resistance with counterattacks and drone interdiction, while Russian units report fuel shortages, manpower attrition, and difficult terrain that have slowed the pace of gains. Recent reporting from late July and early August 2026 highlights ongoing efforts by Russian formations such as the 3rd Combined Arms Army to expand footholds near Rai-Oleksandrivka and Kryva Luka, though full consolidation of Mykolaivka remains contested amid Ukrainian defensive adjustments. Upcoming developments in the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk direction could influence timelines depending on Russian mechanized commitments and Ukrainian reinforcement flows.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.854785° N, 37.770676° E in Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location in Mykolaivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/M1-9c93c30975.png

Mykolaivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/m2-2562dd2b47.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vaMZNEQuFL2b4JNPA

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volumen
$0
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 21, 2026, 2:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.854785° N, 37.770676° E in Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location in Mykolaivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/M1-9c93c30975.png Mykolaivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/m2-2562dd2b47.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vaMZNEQuFL2b4JNPA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

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Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wird Russland Mykolaivka erobern bis...?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 2 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „31. Dezember" mit 48%, gefolgt von „31. Oktober" mit 24%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 48¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 48% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Wird Russland Mykolaivka erobern bis...?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Aug 21, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wird Russland Mykolaivka erobern bis...?" ist „31. Dezember" mit 48%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 48% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „31. Oktober" mit 24%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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