Recent observational data from early August 2026 confirm that the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd ranked among the warmest calendar dates on record globally and in the Northern Hemisphere, driven by a strong El Niño event amplifying background anthropogenic warming. Surface air temperatures reached record anomalies, including a Northern Hemisphere daily peak around 22.4°C on August 1, consistent with NOAA, Copernicus, and Berkeley Earth analyses showing July 2026 tying prior hottest months and early August heat domes breaking numerous station records across North America, Europe, and Asia. Trader consensus at 96.5% for the top ranking reflects this verified model agreement and preliminary reanalysis data. Revisions in final datasets, regional weighting differences, or unexpected cooling from volcanic aerosols or La Niña onset could narrow the margin, though current evidence makes such shifts unlikely before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Los días 1, 2 y 3 de agosto de 2026 son los más calurosos de la historia?
¿Los días 1, 2 y 3 de agosto de 2026 son los más calurosos de la historia?
1st hottest 96.8%
2nd hottest 2.9%
3rd hottest 2.3%
4th or lower 1.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ago 2026
1st hottest
97%
2nd hottest
3%
3rd hottest
2%
4th or lower
1%
1st hottest 96.8%
2nd hottest 2.9%
3rd hottest 2.3%
4th or lower 1.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ago 2026
1st hottest
$510 Vol.
97%
2nd hottest
$334 Vol.
3%
3rd hottest
$152 Vol.
2%
4th or lower
$151 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observational data from early August 2026 confirm that the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd ranked among the warmest calendar dates on record globally and in the Northern Hemisphere, driven by a strong El Niño event amplifying background anthropogenic warming. Surface air temperatures reached record anomalies, including a Northern Hemisphere daily peak around 22.4°C on August 1, consistent with NOAA, Copernicus, and Berkeley Earth analyses showing July 2026 tying prior hottest months and early August heat domes breaking numerous station records across North America, Europe, and Asia. Trader consensus at 96.5% for the top ranking reflects this verified model agreement and preliminary reanalysis data. Revisions in final datasets, regional weighting differences, or unexpected cooling from volcanic aerosols or La Niña onset could narrow the margin, though current evidence makes such shifts unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Mercado abierto: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volumen
$1,147Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observational data from early August 2026 confirm that the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd ranked among the warmest calendar dates on record globally and in the Northern Hemisphere, driven by a strong El Niño event amplifying background anthropogenic warming. Surface air temperatures reached record anomalies, including a Northern Hemisphere daily peak around 22.4°C on August 1, consistent with NOAA, Copernicus, and Berkeley Earth analyses showing July 2026 tying prior hottest months and early August heat domes breaking numerous station records across North America, Europe, and Asia. Trader consensus at 96.5% for the top ranking reflects this verified model agreement and preliminary reanalysis data. Revisions in final datasets, regional weighting differences, or unexpected cooling from volcanic aerosols or La Niña onset could narrow the margin, though current evidence makes such shifts unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volumen
$1,147Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data from early August 2026 confirm that the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd ranked among the warmest calendar dates on record globally and in the Northern Hemisphere, driven by a strong El Niño event amplifying background anthropogenic warming. Surface air temperatures reached record anomalies, including a Northern Hemisphere daily peak around 22.4°C on August 1, consistent with NOAA, Copernicus, and Berkeley Earth analyses showing July 2026 tying prior hottest months and early August heat domes breaking numerous station records across North America, Europe, and Asia. Trader consensus at 96.5% for the top ranking reflects this verified model agreement and preliminary reanalysis data. Revisions in final datasets, regional weighting differences, or unexpected cooling from volcanic aerosols or La Niña onset could narrow the margin, though current evidence makes such shifts unlikely before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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