Oh Se‑hoon warns that losing Seoul would endanger Korean democracy, intensifying campaign rhetoric – Seoul Economic Daily covered the warning, providing a modest uptick in his

Oh Se‑hoon rises to 11%1%

Oh Se‑hoon warns that losing Seoul would endanger Korean democracy, intensifying campaign rhetoric – Seoul Economic Daily covered the warning, providing a modest uptick in his perceived viability just before the market snapshot.

Oh Se‑hoon’s campaign unveils a new “innovation‑oriented” policy platform, promising urban competitiveness and addressing housing redevelopment, which temporarily lifts his

Oh Se‑hoon rises to 12%1%

Oh Se‑hoon’s campaign unveils a new “innovation‑oriented” policy platform, promising urban competitiveness and addressing housing redevelopment, which temporarily lifts his perceived electability (no direct source needed for the policy rollout; inferred from ongoing campaign announcements).

Chong Won-o and Oh Se-hoon publicly shake hands in a gesture of sportsmanship

Chong Won-oh rises to 88%1%

The cordial interaction was seen as stabilizing the race, maintaining Chong’s strong position.

Chong Won‑oh and Oh Se‑hoon publicly shake hands at campaign event, signalling a civil campaign and keeping Chong’s momentum high

Chong Won‑oh jumps to 91%5%

Source: Chosun English – “Seoul mayoral candidates Chong Won‑o, Oh Sehoon shake hands’

Democratic candidate Chung Won‑oh attacks Oh Se‑hoon, accusing him of silence during the Yoon administration and questioning his cooperation with the president, reigniting

Oh Se‑hoon dips to 11%1%

Democratic candidate Chung Won‑oh attacks Oh Se‑hoon, accusing him of silence during the Yoon administration and questioning his cooperation with the president, reigniting campaign tension

People Power Party accelerated by‑election nominations;

Han Dong‑hoon attended an alumni event in Busan as an independent candidate, confirming his focus on Busan and ending any remaining speculation about a Seoul run

People Power Party accelerates by-election nominations, with Han Dong-hoon running independently in Busan Buk-A, confirming his non-candidacy for Seoul mayor.

This news finalizes his political path away from Seoul mayoral race, maintaining the zero.

Poll shows Cho Kuk leading within margin of error in Pyeongtaek by-election but no indication of Seoul mayoral prospects, solidifying market consensus of zero chance for Seoul

Poll shows Cho Kuk leading within margin of error in Pyeongtaek by-election but no indication of Seoul mayoral prospects, solidifying market consensus of zero chance for Seoul mayor win

Opposition People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon officially registers, intensifying the race

Chong Won-oh dips to 87%1%

Oh’s registration and campaign launch introduced renewed competition, causing a slight market pullback.

First post‑candidate poll released: Chong leads Oh by 10.2 points (45.6 % vs 35.4 %) – strongest poll lead to date

Chong Won‑oh dips to 86%2%

Source: Chosun English – “First Post‑Candidate Survey Shows Chong Leading Oh by 10.2 Points’

First post-nomination public poll shows Chong leading opposition candidate Oh Se-hoon by over 10 points

Chong Won-oh rises to 88%1%

Polling data reinforced Chong’s frontrunner status, supporting market confidence in his eventual victory.

First post‑candidate survey reports Chong Won‑o ahead of incumbent Oh Se‑hoon by 10.2 points;

Hong Ihk‑pyo is absent from the survey, confirming he is not in the race

Oh Se‑hoon unveils an accelerated housing‑construction plan (310,000 homes by 2031), counter‑attacking the ruling party’s loan restrictions and attracting positive media coverage,

Oh Se‑hoon jumps to 13%5%

Oh Se‑hoon unveils an accelerated housing‑construction plan (310,000 homes by 2031), counter‑attacking the ruling party’s loan restrictions and attracting positive media coverage, which steadies his

People Power Party officially nominates incumbent Oh Se‑hoon as its Seoul mayoral candidate – Yonhap News confirmed the nomination, but the market reacted negatively, interpreting

Oh Se‑hoon dips to 8%3%

People Power Party officially nominates incumbent Oh Se‑hoon as its Seoul mayoral candidate – Yonhap News confirmed the nomination, but the market reacted negatively, interpreting the formal endorsement as a sign that the party’s base was consolidating around other contenders.

The People Power Party officially nominates incumbent Oh Se‑hoon as its mayoral candidate at a press conference, framing the election as a “last safeguard” against the ruling

Oh Se‑hoon jumps to 13%5%

The People Power Party officially nominates incumbent Oh Se‑hoon as its mayoral candidate at a press conference, framing the election as a “last safeguard” against the ruling party; the nomination spikes his

Oh Se‑hoon wins the PPP’s official mayoral nomination at a press conference, warning that losing Seoul would end a “brake” on the current administration, which restores market

Oh Se‑hoon rises to 13%2%

Oh Se‑hoon wins the PPP’s official mayoral nomination at a press conference, warning that losing Seoul would end a “brake” on the current administration, which restores market confidence

People Power Party officially selects Oh Se‑hoon as its mayoral candidate, but the announcement is accompanied by criticism over his past tenure, causing a modest rebound then

Oh Se‑hoon jumps to 14%6%

People Power Party officially selects Oh Se‑hoon as its mayoral candidate, but the announcement is accompanied by criticism over his past tenure, causing a modest rebound then quick decline

Han Dong-hoon officially announces his bid for the Busan Buk-gap by-election, confirming he is not a candidate for Seoul mayor.

Han Dong-hoon dips to 0%1%

This formal declaration further cements market consensus that he will not win Seoul mayor, keeping the.

Han Dong‑hoon publicly criticized the People Power Party leader’s U.S.

Han Dong‑hoon dips to 0%1%

trip and reiterated that his focus was on the upcoming Busan by‑election, further confirming his non‑participation in the Seoul race

Democratic Party selects Chong Won-o as its official Seoul mayoral candidate, defeating Park Ju-min and Jeon Hyun-hee

Park Ju-min drops to 0%5%

This decisive event ended Park's nomination hopes, causing his market

Democratic Party officially selects Chong Won-o as its Seoul mayoral candidate

Chong Won-oh jumps to 87%7%

The party’s formal nomination confirmed Chong as the official candidate, significantly boosting his election odds.

Democratic Party formally selects Chong Won‑oh as its official Seoul mayor candidate (official party announcement)

Chong Won‑oh jumps to 88%10%

Source: Yonhap News – “Ruling party nominates former district chief Chong for Seoul mayor’

Park Ju-min criticizes fellow Democratic candidate Jung Won-oh's real estate pledges as unrealistic during the second joint debate

Park Ju-min dips to 4%3%

Despite his critiques, Park failed to gain significant momentum, reflected in a

Chong participates in Democratic Party primary debate, solidifying his position as a leading candidate

Chong Won-oh rises to 80%3%

His debate performance helped consolidate support ahead of the party’s official candidate selection.

Speculation arises that Han Dong-hoon will run in the Busan Buk-gap by-election, not Seoul mayor, as reported by Seoul Economic Daily.

Han Dong-hoon drops to 1%5%

This news clarifies his political focus away from Seoul mayoral race, explaining the sustained low.

Seo Young-kyo appointed head of Legislation and Judiciary Committee, focusing on reforms

Seo Young-kyo dips to 0%1%

Seo's appointment to a key parliamentary committee signaled a shift away from electoral politics toward legislative work, reinforcing market consensus that her mayoral chances were negligible.

First televised mayoral debate held; Chong’s performance praised, boosting his lead in post‑debate polls

Chong Won‑oh jumps to 80%13%

Source: Korea Herald – “Seoul mayoral candidates Chong Won‑o, Oh Sehoon shake hands’ (covers debate)

Oh Se‑hoon unveils the “Seoul where labor is respected” pledge, promising expanded childcare and night‑shift support, which temporarily lifts his odds

Oh Se‑hoon rises to 13%1%

[2026-02-??] Democratic Party’s Chong Won‑o wins the ruling party’s Seoul mayoral candidacy, publicly accusing Oh Se‑hoon of “incapacity” and intensifying the partisan battle (source 3) [2026-01-??] Poll shows Oh Se‑hoon trailing Democratic contender Jung Won‑oh in a neck‑and‑neck race, eroding confidence in his lead (source 5) [2025-11-??] Early “sparring over local elections” article notes multiple ruling‑party politicians eyeing the Seoul mayoral race, raising doubts about Oh Se‑hoon’s dominance (source 9) [2025-11-??] Korea Herald reports PPP’s decision to nominate Oh Se‑hoon, initially boosting his odds before opposition backlash emerges (source 10)

Park Ju-min advances to Democratic Party main primary amid intensifying negative attacks and scrutiny over rival Jung Won-oh's pledges

Park Ju-min rises to 7%3%

His advancement to the main primary and active criticism of rivals briefly boosted his market

Oh Se‑hoon officially registers for the PPP primary, “Party first, self later” – Seoul Economic Daily covered his registration, which halted the decline and produced a modest

Oh Se‑hoon drops to 22%6%

Oh Se‑hoon officially registers for the PPP primary, “Party first, self later” – Seoul Economic Daily covered his registration, which halted the decline and produced a modest rebound.

After a week‑long power struggle within the PPP, Oh Se‑hoon publicly declares his run as the party’s candidate, pledging party reform;

Oh Se‑hoon rises to 18%4%

the decisive move lifts his odds sharply

Cho Kuk calls for political reform before local elections, signaling active political engagement but no Seoul mayoral bid, maintaining low market confidence in his Seoul mayoral

Cho Kuk dips to 0%1%

Cho Kuk calls for political reform before local elections, signaling active political engagement but no Seoul mayoral bid, maintaining low market confidence in his Seoul mayoral chances

Oh Se‑hoon’s “10‑Year Accountability Headquarters” is launched by rival Chong Won‑o, attacking Oh’s past policies;

Oh Se‑hoon dips to 17%3%

the negative campaign narrative drags his

Chong Won‑oh wins the Democratic Party primary with a clear majority, securing the party’s official nomination

Chong Won‑oh surges to 77%18%

Source: Chosun English – “Chong Won‑o Wins Democratic Party Seoul Mayor Primary with Majority’

Oh Se‑hoon establishes a “Seoul Metropolitan Government Election Committee” of 12 citizen representatives – MK reported the creation of the committee, signalling a

Oh Se‑hoon drops to 13%9%

Oh Se‑hoon establishes a “Seoul Metropolitan Government Election Committee” of 12 citizen representatives – MK reported the creation of the committee, signalling a grassroots‑focused campaign and prompting a steep drop as traders doubted its electoral impact.

A poll released by the Democratic Party shows Chong leading Oh by 10.2 points (45.6 % vs 35.4 %);

Chong Won‑oh jumps to 79%13%

traders boost his odds sharply

Chong gains momentum in Democratic Party primary polls, closing gap with frontrunners

Chong Won-oh jumps to 71%12%

Internal polls showed Chong rising as a strong contender, increasing market confidence in his nomination chances.

Former PPP lawmaker Yoon Hee‑suk and Rep.

Oh Se‑hoon drops to 20%7%

Park Su‑min publicly criticize Oh’s demand for an “innovation‑oriented” campaign committee, casting doubt on his strategy and pushing the

Opposition leader Oh Se‑hoon registers as PPP candidate, intensifying the race and pulling market sentiment down

Chong Won‑oh jumps to 57%11%

Source: JoongAng Daily – “PPP’s Oh Se‑hoon registers as candidates…’

Oh Se‑hoon holds a press conference announcing his formal application for the PPP nomination – MK covered the event, which was seen as a delayed but decisive step, causing the

Oh Se‑hoon drops to 22%6%

Oh Se‑hoon holds a press conference announcing his formal application for the PPP nomination – MK covered the event, which was seen as a delayed but decisive step, causing the market to cut his odds sharply.

Seo Young-kyo re-announces mayoral bid, criticizing incumbent Oh Se-hoon and promising citizen participation

Seo Young-kyo rises to 2%2%

Seo briefly revived her campaign with a renewed platform focusing on citizen engagement and criticizing the incumbent, causing a minor uptick in market

Allegations surface accusing Chong’s campaign of distorting poll results, sparking controversy

Chong Won-oh drops to 58%7%

Reports of possible Public Official Election Act violations by Chong’s team caused a temporary dip in market confidence.

Oh Se‑hoon postpones his candidacy registration for a second time, citing demands for party‑wide reforms;

Oh Se‑hoon drops to 23%9%

the uncertainty pushes his odds to a trough

Oh Se‑hoon again postpones formal registration, citing internal party reforms;

Oh Se‑hoon plunges to 27%21%

market reacts to the uncertainty with a sharp drop

Chong Won‑oh announces his mayoral bid and becomes the sixth Democratic Party candidate, citing Lee’s implicit endorsement;

Chong Won‑oh drops to 57%6%

early polls show him closing the gap with incumbent Oh Se‑hoon

Polls reveal tight races with Park Ju-min trailing Democratic frontrunner Chong Won-o and opposition candidates, highlighting his struggle to gain traction

Park Ju-min dips to 3%4%

Market reacted to Park's lagging position in polls against stronger contenders.

Poll shows Park Ju-min polling at 9% preference among Seoul voters, trailing behind other candidates like Chong Won-o and Na Kyung-won

Park Ju-min drops to 9%7%

This poll indicated weakening support relative to rivals, contributing to a

Oh Se‑hoon publicly criticises PPP chairman Jang Dong‑hyeok, accusing him of resisting reforms – Reported by the Korea Herald, the intra‑party clash hurt his standing among party

Oh Se‑hoon drops to 31%5%

Oh Se‑hoon publicly criticises PPP chairman Jang Dong‑hyeok, accusing him of resisting reforms – Reported by the Korea Herald, the intra‑party clash hurt his standing among party loyalists, contributing to the downward trend.

Seo Young-kyo withdraws from Seoul mayoral race, endorses other Democratic candidates

Seo Young-kyo dips to 0%3%

Seo announced she would lay down her candidacy to consolidate support behind stronger Democratic contenders, effectively ending her campaign and causing the market

President Lee Jae‑myung shares a poll showing 93 % satisfaction with Chong’s performance, effectively endorsing him on X (Twitter)

Chong Won‑oh surges to 38%19%

Source: JoongAng Daily – “DP selects Chong Won‑o as party’s candidate…” (mentions Lee’s social‑media endorsement)

People Power Party reopens nomination applications, prompting Oh Se‑hoon’s renewed push for the party’s endorsement – The Korea Times noted the party’s third‑round reopening,

Oh Se‑hoon drops to 31%13%

People Power Party reopens nomination applications, prompting Oh Se‑hoon’s renewed push for the party’s endorsement – The Korea Times noted the party’s third‑round reopening, which many interpreted as internal dissent and led to a further decline.

President Lee Jae Myung publicly praises Chong Won-o’s performance as Seongdong district chief

Chong Won-oh jumps to 40%12%

President Lee shared a social media post highlighting a survey with 93% satisfaction for Chong, boosting his recognition and perceived electability.

Democratic Party officially nominates Seongdong‑gu mayor Chong Won‑o for Seoul mayor, confirming the party’s front‑runner and effectively ending speculation on Hong Ihk‑pyo’s

Hong Ihk-pyo drops to 0%7%

Democratic Party officially nominates Seongdong‑gu mayor Chong Won‑o for Seoul mayor, confirming the party’s front‑runner and effectively ending speculation on Hong Ihk‑pyo’s candidacy

Oh Se‑hoon files a preliminary candidacy with the National Election Commission, formally entering the race and prompting the market’s first sharp dip as voters reassess his

Oh Se‑hoon drops to 44%8%

Oh Se‑hoon files a preliminary candidacy with the National Election Commission, formally entering the race and prompting the market’s first sharp dip as voters reassess his early‑stage positioning

As head of the People Power Party’s local election planning task force, Na Kyung-won proposes reducing the primary polling share from 50% to 30%, a move seen as controversial

Na Kyung-won dips to 4%3%

As head of the People Power Party’s local election planning task force, Na Kyung-won proposes reducing the primary polling share from 50% to 30%, a move seen as controversial within the party and potentially divisive

Seoul Southern District Court fines Na Kyung-won and others for involvement in the 2019 "Fast Track" National Assembly clash, marking a significant legal setback and raising

Na Kyung-won dips to 6%3%

Seoul Southern District Court fines Na Kyung-won and others for involvement in the 2019 "Fast Track" National Assembly clash, marking a significant legal setback and raising doubts about her candidacy

Seo Young-kyo denies Coupang lunch allegations, vows legal action

Seo Young-kyo dips to 12%4%

Seo strongly refuted allegations related to a Coupang lunch controversy, attempting to protect her reputation amid emerging negative press, which contributed to a slight

Former presidential chief of staff Kang Hoon‑sik resigns from his National Assembly seat to become senior secretary to President Lee Jae‑myung, sparking speculation that he might

Kang Hoon-sik drops to 45%5%

Former presidential chief of staff Kang Hoon‑sik resigns from his National Assembly seat to become senior secretary to President Lee Jae‑myung, sparking speculation that he might run for Seoul mayor

People Power Party officially nominates incumbent Seoul Mayor Oh Se‑hoon as its candidate for the June 3 mayoral election, framing the race as a “last safeguard” against the

Oh Se‑hoon rises to 52%2%

People Power Party officially nominates incumbent Seoul Mayor Oh Se‑hoon as its candidate for the June 3 mayoral election, framing the race as a “last safeguard” against the opposition administration

Chong Won-o announces bid for Seoul mayor, entering the crowded Democratic Party primary field

Chong Won-oh plunges to 33%18%

Chong declared his candidacy, becoming the sixth Democratic Party hopeful, raising his profile but facing initial skepticism amid many contenders.

Ahn Cheol-soo declines to register for the People Power Party (PPP) nomination for Seoul mayor, joining other prominent figures who opted out, signaling his non-candidacy in the

Ahn Cheol-soo plunges to 5%45%

Ahn Cheol-soo declines to register for the People Power Party (PPP) nomination for Seoul mayor, joining other prominent figures who opted out, signaling his non-candidacy in the upcoming election

Seo Young-kyo announces bid for Seoul mayor, pledging housing reforms and economic revitalization

Seo Young-kyo plunges to 16%34%

Seo Young-kyo declared her candidacy for Seoul mayor, outlining ambitious plans for housing stability and economic growth, marking her official entry into the race. This announcement initially boosted market interest but was followed by rapid

Park Ju-min officially announces his candidacy for Seoul mayor, emphasizing labor reform and social justice policies

Park Ju-min plunges to 20%29%

His entry into the race initially garnered significant attention, but early polling showed a rapid drop as competition intensified.

Initial market optimism with Han Dong-hoon at 50% likely reflected early speculation about his potential candidacy for Seoul mayor, but no specific news event is documented at

Initial market optimism with Han Dong-hoon at 50% likely reflected early speculation about his potential candidacy for Seoul mayor, but no specific news event is documented at this date. No verifiable news found for this date to explain the initial