Civil Contract's commanding 93.5% implied probability in the Armenia parliamentary election winner market reflects recent EVN Report polling from April-May 2026, showing the incumbent party leading vote intentions at 32.5%—a stable edge over Strong Armenia's 10.1%—with 39% undecided/non-committed voters leaning 47% toward it via issue-based modeling, projecting 41-51% support at 85% turnout under proportional representation. Opposition fragmentation leaves Armenia Alliance (4.4%) and Prosperous Armenia (3.4%) below the 4-8% thresholds, while rising Prime Minister approval (49%) and improved security/economy perceptions amid Iran policy handling sustain momentum ahead of the June 7 vote. Challengers like a Strong Armenia surge, Azerbaijan border escalation, or scandal shifting undecideds could disrupt this path to plurality seats and potential bonus allocation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoContrato Civil 94%
Strong Armenia 5.6%
Alianza Armenia <1%
Prosperará Armenia <1%
$179,993 Vol.
$179,993 Vol.
7 jun 2026
Contrato Civil
94%
Strong Armenia
6%
Alianza Armenia
<1%
Prosperará Armenia
<1%
Alianza Tengo Honor
<1%
Congreso Nacional Armenio
<1%
Armenia Brillante
<1%
Partido Hanrapetutyun
<1%
Heritage
<1%
Orinats Yerkir
<1%
Contrato Civil 94%
Strong Armenia 5.6%
Alianza Armenia <1%
Prosperará Armenia <1%
$179,993 Vol.
$179,993 Vol.
7 jun 2026
Contrato Civil
$55,181 Vol.
94%
Strong Armenia
$8,965 Vol.
6%
Alianza Armenia
$56,873 Vol.
<1%
Prosperará Armenia
$9,749 Vol.
<1%
Alianza Tengo Honor
$7,219 Vol.
<1%
Congreso Nacional Armenio
$8,828 Vol.
<1%
Armenia Brillante
$7,741 Vol.
<1%
Partido Hanrapetutyun
$7,367 Vol.
<1%
Heritage
$8,236 Vol.
<1%
Orinats Yerkir
$9,835 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).Civil Contract's commanding 93.5% implied probability in the Armenia parliamentary election winner market reflects recent EVN Report polling from April-May 2026, showing the incumbent party leading vote intentions at 32.5%—a stable edge over Strong Armenia's 10.1%—with 39% undecided/non-committed voters leaning 47% toward it via issue-based modeling, projecting 41-51% support at 85% turnout under proportional representation. Opposition fragmentation leaves Armenia Alliance (4.4%) and Prosperous Armenia (3.4%) below the 4-8% thresholds, while rising Prime Minister approval (49%) and improved security/economy perceptions amid Iran policy handling sustain momentum ahead of the June 7 vote. Challengers like a Strong Armenia surge, Azerbaijan border escalation, or scandal shifting undecideds could disrupt this path to plurality seats and potential bonus allocation.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ET
Volumen
$179,993Fecha de finalización
7 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).Civil Contract's commanding 93.5% implied probability in the Armenia parliamentary election winner market reflects recent EVN Report polling from April-May 2026, showing the incumbent party leading vote intentions at 32.5%—a stable edge over Strong Armenia's 10.1%—with 39% undecided/non-committed voters leaning 47% toward it via issue-based modeling, projecting 41-51% support at 85% turnout under proportional representation. Opposition fragmentation leaves Armenia Alliance (4.4%) and Prosperous Armenia (3.4%) below the 4-8% thresholds, while rising Prime Minister approval (49%) and improved security/economy perceptions amid Iran policy handling sustain momentum ahead of the June 7 vote. Challengers like a Strong Armenia surge, Azerbaijan border escalation, or scandal shifting undecideds could disrupt this path to plurality seats and potential bonus allocation.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
Volumen
$179,993Fecha de finalización
7 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Civil Contract's commanding 93.5% implied probability in the Armenia parliamentary election winner market reflects recent EVN Report polling from April-May 2026, showing the incumbent party leading vote intentions at 32.5%—a stable edge over Strong Armenia's 10.1%—with 39% undecided/non-committed voters leaning 47% toward it via issue-based modeling, projecting 41-51% support at 85% turnout under proportional representation. Opposition fragmentation leaves Armenia Alliance (4.4%) and Prosperous Armenia (3.4%) below the 4-8% thresholds, while rising Prime Minister approval (49%) and improved security/economy perceptions amid Iran policy handling sustain momentum ahead of the June 7 vote. Challengers like a Strong Armenia surge, Azerbaijan border escalation, or scandal shifting undecideds could disrupt this path to plurality seats and potential bonus allocation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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