The Bank of Mexico’s May 7 decision to lower its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 6.50 percent, paired with explicit forward guidance that the easing cycle has concluded, anchors trader expectations for a hold at the June 25 meeting. Recent data show headline inflation easing to 4.45 percent and core inflation to 4.26 percent in April, while first-quarter GDP contracted, creating greater economic slack and reducing demand-driven price pressures. Persistent inflation above the 3 percent target, upward revisions to near-term forecasts, and ongoing geopolitical and trade uncertainties have reinforced the board’s preference for stability at the current restrictive stance. Market-implied odds above 90 percent for no change reflect this guidance and the absence of fresh data justifying another move, though a sharper-than-expected rebound in activity or further upside surprises in non-core prices could still prompt a reassessment before resolution.