Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has anchored trader sentiment, as the model quickly topped independent leaderboards like BenchAlign v5 with an 82.58 score ahead of Fable 5 and Opus 5. Traders see the close spread between Fable 5.1-max, Opus 5 variants, and Other reflecting Anthropic’s internal iteration pace versus potential OpenAI or Google releases before September 21 resolution. Differentiators center on coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified, long-horizon agentic performance, adaptive reasoning at high effort, and pricing trade-offs—Fable 5.1 targets frontier capability while Opus 5 offers comparable results at roughly half the token cost. With no major non-Anthropic breakthroughs confirmed in the past week, market-implied odds capture uncertainty over which exact model variant or external contender will lead on the resolution date.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoOtro 46%
claude-fable-5.1-max 28%
claude-opus-5-high 18%
claude-opus-5-max 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
21 sep 2026
Otro
32%
claude-fable-5.1-max
28%
claude-opus-5-high
18%
claude-opus-5-max
13%
claude-opus-4-6-high
2%
Otro 46%
claude-fable-5.1-max 28%
claude-opus-5-high 18%
claude-opus-5-max 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
21 sep 2026
Otro
$139 Vol.
32%
claude-fable-5.1-max
$176 Vol.
28%
claude-opus-5-high
$41 Vol.
18%
claude-opus-5-max
$61 Vol.
13%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$156 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has anchored trader sentiment, as the model quickly topped independent leaderboards like BenchAlign v5 with an 82.58 score ahead of Fable 5 and Opus 5. Traders see the close spread between Fable 5.1-max, Opus 5 variants, and Other reflecting Anthropic’s internal iteration pace versus potential OpenAI or Google releases before September 21 resolution. Differentiators center on coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified, long-horizon agentic performance, adaptive reasoning at high effort, and pricing trade-offs—Fable 5.1 targets frontier capability while Opus 5 offers comparable results at roughly half the token cost. With no major non-Anthropic breakthroughs confirmed in the past week, market-implied odds capture uncertainty over which exact model variant or external contender will lead on the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
Volumen
$573Fecha de finalización
21 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has anchored trader sentiment, as the model quickly topped independent leaderboards like BenchAlign v5 with an 82.58 score ahead of Fable 5 and Opus 5. Traders see the close spread between Fable 5.1-max, Opus 5 variants, and Other reflecting Anthropic’s internal iteration pace versus potential OpenAI or Google releases before September 21 resolution. Differentiators center on coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified, long-horizon agentic performance, adaptive reasoning at high effort, and pricing trade-offs—Fable 5.1 targets frontier capability while Opus 5 offers comparable results at roughly half the token cost. With no major non-Anthropic breakthroughs confirmed in the past week, market-implied odds capture uncertainty over which exact model variant or external contender will lead on the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$573Fecha de finalización
21 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 has anchored trader sentiment, as the model quickly topped independent leaderboards like BenchAlign v5 with an 82.58 score ahead of Fable 5 and Opus 5. Traders see the close spread between Fable 5.1-max, Opus 5 variants, and Other reflecting Anthropic’s internal iteration pace versus potential OpenAI or Google releases before September 21 resolution. Differentiators center on coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified, long-horizon agentic performance, adaptive reasoning at high effort, and pricing trade-offs—Fable 5.1 targets frontier capability while Opus 5 offers comparable results at roughly half the token cost. With no major non-Anthropic breakthroughs confirmed in the past week, market-implied odds capture uncertainty over which exact model variant or external contender will lead on the resolution date.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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