Recent polling from early May shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding narrow first-round leads of four to six points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with roughly 10 percent undecided and opposition support split among several right-leaning figures. This volatility, absent any decisive consolidation behind a single challenger, has driven trader consensus toward sub-5 percent victory margins for either frontrunner on October 4. Lula’s position remains stable in Workers’ Party strongholds, while Flávio benefits from former President Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and gains in key states. Fragmented third options such as Tarcísio de Freitas and Ratinho Júnior further compress the expected gap, sustaining elevated implied probabilities for the closest outcome brackets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPrimera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: margen de victoria
Primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: margen de victoria
Lula da Silva <5% 31%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 25%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 8.3%
$231,656 Vol.
$231,656 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
2%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
8%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
35%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
25%
Victoria de Renan Santos
5%
Victoria de Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Victoria de Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Otro
10%
Lula da Silva <5% 31%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 25%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 8.3%
$231,656 Vol.
$231,656 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$4,601 Vol.
2%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$2,627 Vol.
8%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$6,808 Vol.
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
$2,923 Vol.
35%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$1,984 Vol.
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$2,309 Vol.
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$4,026 Vol.
25%
Victoria de Renan Santos
$200,633 Vol.
5%
Victoria de Tarcisio de Freitas
$1,712 Vol.
<1%
Victoria de Ratinho Júnior
$1,774 Vol.
<1%
Otro
$2,258 Vol.
10%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from early May shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding narrow first-round leads of four to six points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with roughly 10 percent undecided and opposition support split among several right-leaning figures. This volatility, absent any decisive consolidation behind a single challenger, has driven trader consensus toward sub-5 percent victory margins for either frontrunner on October 4. Lula’s position remains stable in Workers’ Party strongholds, while Flávio benefits from former President Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and gains in key states. Fragmented third options such as Tarcísio de Freitas and Ratinho Júnior further compress the expected gap, sustaining elevated implied probabilities for the closest outcome brackets.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volumen
$231,656Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from early May shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding narrow first-round leads of four to six points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with roughly 10 percent undecided and opposition support split among several right-leaning figures. This volatility, absent any decisive consolidation behind a single challenger, has driven trader consensus toward sub-5 percent victory margins for either frontrunner on October 4. Lula’s position remains stable in Workers’ Party strongholds, while Flávio benefits from former President Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and gains in key states. Fragmented third options such as Tarcísio de Freitas and Ratinho Júnior further compress the expected gap, sustaining elevated implied probabilities for the closest outcome brackets.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$231,656Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling from early May shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding narrow first-round leads of four to six points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with roughly 10 percent undecided and opposition support split among several right-leaning figures. This volatility, absent any decisive consolidation behind a single challenger, has driven trader consensus toward sub-5 percent victory margins for either frontrunner on October 4. Lula’s position remains stable in Workers’ Party strongholds, while Flávio benefits from former President Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and gains in key states. Fragmented third options such as Tarcísio de Freitas and Ratinho Júnior further compress the expected gap, sustaining elevated implied probabilities for the closest outcome brackets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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