Incumbent Democratic Representative Mike Levin advanced through the June 2026 top-two primary with a comfortable 55.9% share against Republican Armen Kurdian, reflecting the district's post-redistricting shift of roughly four points toward Democrats and its D+7 partisan voting index. Voter registration advantages and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, including alignment with a double-digit margin for the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate, underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 94% implied probability for a Democratic win. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. A late national Republican surge or unexpected local development could still narrow the margin before the November general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-49 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-49 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$20,224 Vol.
$20,224 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
94%
Partido Republicano
6%
$20,224 Vol.
$20,224 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$18,997 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$1,227 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Mike Levin advanced through the June 2026 top-two primary with a comfortable 55.9% share against Republican Armen Kurdian, reflecting the district's post-redistricting shift of roughly four points toward Democrats and its D+7 partisan voting index. Voter registration advantages and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, including alignment with a double-digit margin for the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate, underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 94% implied probability for a Democratic win. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. A late national Republican surge or unexpected local development could still narrow the margin before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volumen
$20,224Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Mike Levin advanced through the June 2026 top-two primary with a comfortable 55.9% share against Republican Armen Kurdian, reflecting the district's post-redistricting shift of roughly four points toward Democrats and its D+7 partisan voting index. Voter registration advantages and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, including alignment with a double-digit margin for the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate, underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 94% implied probability for a Democratic win. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. A late national Republican surge or unexpected local development could still narrow the margin before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$20,224Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Mike Levin advanced through the June 2026 top-two primary with a comfortable 55.9% share against Republican Armen Kurdian, reflecting the district's post-redistricting shift of roughly four points toward Democrats and its D+7 partisan voting index. Voter registration advantages and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, including alignment with a double-digit margin for the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate, underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 94% implied probability for a Democratic win. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. A late national Republican surge or unexpected local development could still narrow the margin before the November general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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