David Jolly holds a commanding lead in the Florida Democratic primary for governor, scheduled for August 18, 2026, reflecting his consistent edge in recent polls of registered Democrats and a notable fundraising advantage over other contenders. Former U.S. Representative Jolly, who switched parties after serving as a moderate Republican, has drawn support from voters seeking broader appeal in a general election against the likely Republican nominee. Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings trails as the clearest alternative but remains far behind in both polling averages and campaign resources. Minor candidates such as state legislators and local officials register negligible support, with most Democratic voters still undecided. Traders have incorporated these primary dynamics, including Jolly’s momentum from special election gains and donor surges, into the current pricing.