Smotrich’s August 13, 2026, statements to The Jerusalem Post represent the primary driver of the 92.5% implied probability for “No.” The Religious Zionist Party leader explicitly ruled out a renewed joint list with Otzma Yehudit for the October 2026 Knesset election, stating that his party can succeed independently without viewing Ben-Gvir as a necessary partner. Ben-Gvir has publicly aligned with this position, declaring the parties will contest the election separately to maximize right-wing representation. Earlier June 2026 reporting noted Netanyahu explored merger incentives to safeguard the broader right-wing bloc, yet both leaders declined amid differing ambitions—Smotrich seeking to avoid a subordinate role and Ben-Gvir confident his party can independently clear the electoral threshold. While some polling indicates Religious Zionist support could prove more vulnerable without an alliance, the explicit rejections by the party heads have shaped trader consensus around a low likelihood of a joint list absent a major intervening shift.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
8% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 sep 2026
Sí
8% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 sep 2026
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).Smotrich’s August 13, 2026, statements to The Jerusalem Post represent the primary driver of the 92.5% implied probability for “No.” The Religious Zionist Party leader explicitly ruled out a renewed joint list with Otzma Yehudit for the October 2026 Knesset election, stating that his party can succeed independently without viewing Ben-Gvir as a necessary partner. Ben-Gvir has publicly aligned with this position, declaring the parties will contest the election separately to maximize right-wing representation. Earlier June 2026 reporting noted Netanyahu explored merger incentives to safeguard the broader right-wing bloc, yet both leaders declined amid differing ambitions—Smotrich seeking to avoid a subordinate role and Ben-Gvir confident his party can independently clear the electoral threshold. While some polling indicates Religious Zionist support could prove more vulnerable without an alliance, the explicit rejections by the party heads have shaped trader consensus around a low likelihood of a joint list absent a major intervening shift.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Mercado abierto: Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ET
Volumen
$819Fecha de finalización
8 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).Smotrich’s August 13, 2026, statements to The Jerusalem Post represent the primary driver of the 92.5% implied probability for “No.” The Religious Zionist Party leader explicitly ruled out a renewed joint list with Otzma Yehudit for the October 2026 Knesset election, stating that his party can succeed independently without viewing Ben-Gvir as a necessary partner. Ben-Gvir has publicly aligned with this position, declaring the parties will contest the election separately to maximize right-wing representation. Earlier June 2026 reporting noted Netanyahu explored merger incentives to safeguard the broader right-wing bloc, yet both leaders declined amid differing ambitions—Smotrich seeking to avoid a subordinate role and Ben-Gvir confident his party can independently clear the electoral threshold. While some polling indicates Religious Zionist support could prove more vulnerable without an alliance, the explicit rejections by the party heads have shaped trader consensus around a low likelihood of a joint list absent a major intervening shift.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Volumen
$819Fecha de finalización
8 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Smotrich’s August 13, 2026, statements to The Jerusalem Post represent the primary driver of the 92.5% implied probability for “No.” The Religious Zionist Party leader explicitly ruled out a renewed joint list with Otzma Yehudit for the October 2026 Knesset election, stating that his party can succeed independently without viewing Ben-Gvir as a necessary partner. Ben-Gvir has publicly aligned with this position, declaring the parties will contest the election separately to maximize right-wing representation. Earlier June 2026 reporting noted Netanyahu explored merger incentives to safeguard the broader right-wing bloc, yet both leaders declined amid differing ambitions—Smotrich seeking to avoid a subordinate role and Ben-Gvir confident his party can independently clear the electoral threshold. While some polling indicates Religious Zionist support could prove more vulnerable without an alliance, the explicit rejections by the party heads have shaped trader consensus around a low likelihood of a joint list absent a major intervening shift.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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