President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s constitutional term runs through the 2028 presidential election, with no snap vote scheduled or viable given the Justice and Development Party’s parliamentary majority. Recent public appearances and policy announcements, including the designation of 2026–2035 as the “Decade of Family and Population” and repeated references to 2026 as a year of reform, underscore his active leadership. Unverified health concerns from early 2026 have dissipated without official confirmation, while approval ratings climbed to 46 percent in March amid geopolitical developments. Opposition figures face legal constraints that limit immediate challenges, and no parliamentary or institutional mechanisms have emerged to force an exit before the end of 2026. Traders therefore assign low probability to removal in the near term.