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Política·Elecciones Globales

¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?

icon for ¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?
Política·Elecciones Globales

¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?

Noel Thomas 42%

Seán Kyne 31.2%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 9.3%

Mike Cubbard 9.1%

Polymarket

$47,102 Vol.

Noel Thomas 42%

Seán Kyne 31.2%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 9.3%

Mike Cubbard 9.1%

Polymarket

$47,102 Vol.

Sheila Garrity

$20,246 Vol.

1%

Seán Kyne

$4,519 Vol.

31%

Niall Murphy

$1,834 Vol.

<1%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich

$1,646 Vol.

9%

Orla Nugent

$1,680 Vol.

2%

Helen Ogbu

$3,887 Vol.

8%

Denman Rooke

$1,612 Vol.

1%

Noel Thomas

$5,057 Vol.

47%

Thomas Welby

$1,697 Vol.

<1%

Mike Cubbard

$2,416 Vol.

20%

Mark Lohan

$2,509 Vol.

4%

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Recent polling in Galway West shows Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne edging Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas by a single point on first preferences, yet traders assign Thomas the clearest lead at 55 percent implied probability. This positioning reflects expectations around transfer patterns from a fragmented field that includes Labour’s Helen Ogbu and Social Democrats’ Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich, both positioned to deliver second preferences in a single-seat contest. Noel Thomas has gained visibility through his record on local issues such as cost-of-living pressures and housing in the Connemara area, while Kyne draws on his experience as a former TD and current Seanad leader. With voting scheduled for 22 May, the market consensus indicates traders view Thomas’s independent appeal and potential for broader transfers as decisive factors over the next week.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volumen
$47,102
Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2027
Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Recent polling in Galway West shows Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne edging Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas by a single point on first preferences, yet traders assign Thomas the clearest lead at 55 percent implied probability. This positioning reflects expectations around transfer patterns from a fragmented field that includes Labour’s Helen Ogbu and Social Democrats’ Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich, both positioned to deliver second preferences in a single-seat contest. Noel Thomas has gained visibility through his record on local issues such as cost-of-living pressures and housing in the Connemara area, while Kyne draws on his experience as a former TD and current Seanad leader. With voting scheduled for 22 May, the market consensus indicates traders view Thomas’s independent appeal and potential for broader transfers as decisive factors over the next week.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volumen
$47,102
Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2027
Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 11 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Noel Thomas" con 47%, seguido de "Seán Kyne" con 31%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 47¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 47% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?" ha generado $47.1K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 26, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?", explora los 11 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?" es "Noel Thomas" con 47%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 47% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Seán Kyne" con 31%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.