The upcoming May 22 by-election to fill the Dáil seat vacated by Catherine Connolly's election as president features a tight contest under single transferable vote rules, with Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas leading trader consensus at 47 percent amid expectations of robust local independent backing and favorable transfer flows from smaller candidates. Fine Gael's Seán Kyne follows at 31 percent, supported by established party organization and an early May Irish Times/TG4 poll showing him narrowly ahead on first preferences at 17 percent to Thomas's 16 percent. Lower probabilities for Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich, Labour's Helen Ogbu, and Sinn Féin's Mark Lohan reflect vote fragmentation on the left and limited candidate profile in a constituency where independents have historically performed well.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?
¿Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Galway-West?
Noel Thomas 42%
Seán Kyne 31.2%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 9.4%
Mike Cubbard 9.1%
$47,148 Vol.
$47,148 Vol.
31 mar 2027
Sheila Garrity
1%
Seán Kyne
31%
Niall Murphy
<1%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich
9%
Orla Nugent
<1%
Helen Ogbu
4%
Denman Rooke
1%
Noel Thomas
47%
Thomas Welby
<1%
Mike Cubbard
10%
Mark Lohan
4%
Noel Thomas 42%
Seán Kyne 31.2%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich 9.4%
Mike Cubbard 9.1%
$47,148 Vol.
$47,148 Vol.
31 mar 2027
Sheila Garrity
$20,246 Vol.
1%
Seán Kyne
$4,700 Vol.
31%
Niall Murphy
$1,834 Vol.
<1%
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich
$1,646 Vol.
9%
Orla Nugent
$1,680 Vol.
<1%
Helen Ogbu
$3,933 Vol.
4%
Denman Rooke
$1,612 Vol.
1%
Noel Thomas
$5,057 Vol.
47%
Thomas Welby
$1,697 Vol.
<1%
Mike Cubbard
$2,416 Vol.
10%
Mark Lohan
$2,509 Vol.
4%
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).The upcoming May 22 by-election to fill the Dáil seat vacated by Catherine Connolly's election as president features a tight contest under single transferable vote rules, with Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas leading trader consensus at 47 percent amid expectations of robust local independent backing and favorable transfer flows from smaller candidates. Fine Gael's Seán Kyne follows at 31 percent, supported by established party organization and an early May Irish Times/TG4 poll showing him narrowly ahead on first preferences at 17 percent to Thomas's 16 percent. Lower probabilities for Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich, Labour's Helen Ogbu, and Sinn Féin's Mark Lohan reflect vote fragmentation on the left and limited candidate profile in a constituency where independents have historically performed well.
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Mercado abierto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
Volumen
$47,148Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).The upcoming May 22 by-election to fill the Dáil seat vacated by Catherine Connolly's election as president features a tight contest under single transferable vote rules, with Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas leading trader consensus at 47 percent amid expectations of robust local independent backing and favorable transfer flows from smaller candidates. Fine Gael's Seán Kyne follows at 31 percent, supported by established party organization and an early May Irish Times/TG4 poll showing him narrowly ahead on first preferences at 17 percent to Thomas's 16 percent. Lower probabilities for Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich, Labour's Helen Ogbu, and Sinn Féin's Mark Lohan reflect vote fragmentation on the left and limited candidate profile in a constituency where independents have historically performed well.
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volumen
$47,148Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The upcoming May 22 by-election to fill the Dáil seat vacated by Catherine Connolly's election as president features a tight contest under single transferable vote rules, with Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas leading trader consensus at 47 percent amid expectations of robust local independent backing and favorable transfer flows from smaller candidates. Fine Gael's Seán Kyne follows at 31 percent, supported by established party organization and an early May Irish Times/TG4 poll showing him narrowly ahead on first preferences at 17 percent to Thomas's 16 percent. Lower probabilities for Social Democrats' Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich, Labour's Helen Ogbu, and Sinn Féin's Mark Lohan reflect vote fragmentation on the left and limited candidate profile in a constituency where independents have historically performed well.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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