Latest AEMET forecasts for Madrid on August 5 project a daytime maximum of 35°C under stable anticyclonic conditions typical of midsummer, with ensemble guidance from ECMWF indicating a narrow range around 34–36°C. This consensus, combined with observed trends in recent model runs showing limited daytime heating potential due to light winds and minimal cloud cover, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 36°C at 77.5% implied probability. Nearby outcomes at 35°C and 37°C each hold 11% as traders price in small forecast spreads and resolution criteria based on official station readings. No major shifts in steering patterns or moisture advection have emerged in the past 48 hours to alter this outlook.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 5 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 5 de agosto?
36°C 76%
35°C 13%
37°C 12%
38°C <1%
$31,494 Vol.
$31,494 Vol.
5 ago 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
13%
36°C
76%
37°C
12%
38°C
1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
36°C 76%
35°C 13%
37°C 12%
38°C <1%
$31,494 Vol.
$31,494 Vol.
5 ago 2026
31°C or below
$961 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$642 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$985 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$2,054 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$8,364 Vol.
13%
36°C
$5,179 Vol.
76%
37°C
$3,745 Vol.
12%
38°C
$2,000 Vol.
1%
39°C
$1,156 Vol.
<1%
40°C
$935 Vol.
<1%
41°C or higher
$5,474 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest AEMET forecasts for Madrid on August 5 project a daytime maximum of 35°C under stable anticyclonic conditions typical of midsummer, with ensemble guidance from ECMWF indicating a narrow range around 34–36°C. This consensus, combined with observed trends in recent model runs showing limited daytime heating potential due to light winds and minimal cloud cover, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 36°C at 77.5% implied probability. Nearby outcomes at 35°C and 37°C each hold 11% as traders price in small forecast spreads and resolution criteria based on official station readings. No major shifts in steering patterns or moisture advection have emerged in the past 48 hours to alter this outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volumen
$31,494Fecha de finalización
5 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest AEMET forecasts for Madrid on August 5 project a daytime maximum of 35°C under stable anticyclonic conditions typical of midsummer, with ensemble guidance from ECMWF indicating a narrow range around 34–36°C. This consensus, combined with observed trends in recent model runs showing limited daytime heating potential due to light winds and minimal cloud cover, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 36°C at 77.5% implied probability. Nearby outcomes at 35°C and 37°C each hold 11% as traders price in small forecast spreads and resolution criteria based on official station readings. No major shifts in steering patterns or moisture advection have emerged in the past 48 hours to alter this outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$31,494Fecha de finalización
5 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest AEMET forecasts for Madrid on August 5 project a daytime maximum of 35°C under stable anticyclonic conditions typical of midsummer, with ensemble guidance from ECMWF indicating a narrow range around 34–36°C. This consensus, combined with observed trends in recent model runs showing limited daytime heating potential due to light winds and minimal cloud cover, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 36°C at 77.5% implied probability. Nearby outcomes at 35°C and 37°C each hold 11% as traders price in small forecast spreads and resolution criteria based on official station readings. No major shifts in steering patterns or moisture advection have emerged in the past 48 hours to alter this outlook.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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