**Trader sentiment for Tokyo's highest temperature on August 5, 2026, centers on 30°C as the clear favorite (66% implied probability), with 31°C a solid secondary option (30.5%).** This distribution reflects the latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecast of a maximum of 30°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, following a 29°C reading the prior day. August climatology supports these odds: typical early-month highs in Tokyo average 30–32°C amid the seasonal influence of the strengthened Pacific High, which promotes subsidence, clear skies, and daytime heating. Above-normal summer temperatures are expected nationwide per JMA outlooks, driven by persistent high-pressure patterns after the rainy season, though urban heat-island effects and high humidity can amplify perceived warmth without necessarily pushing the official maximum higher. Recent model guidance and the absence of incoming fronts or typhoon influences keep the risk of exceeding 32°C low (under 5% combined), aligning with the market's minimal pricing on outliers. Any last-minute shifts in cloud cover or wind could nudge the outcome toward 31°C, but current data favor the 30°C resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Tokio el 5 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Tokio el 5 de agosto?
30°C 73%
31°C 22%
32°C 4%
33°C <1%
$70,344 Vol.
$70,344 Vol.
5 ago 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
73%
31°C
22%
32°C
4%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 73%
31°C 22%
32°C 4%
33°C <1%
$70,344 Vol.
$70,344 Vol.
5 ago 2026
25°C or below
$744 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$2,032 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$4,187 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$7,665 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$21,659 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$8,708 Vol.
73%
31°C
$4,724 Vol.
22%
32°C
$4,975 Vol.
4%
33°C
$5,182 Vol.
1%
34°C
$4,927 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$5,542 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Tokyo's highest temperature on August 5, 2026, centers on 30°C as the clear favorite (66% implied probability), with 31°C a solid secondary option (30.5%).** This distribution reflects the latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecast of a maximum of 30°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, following a 29°C reading the prior day.
August climatology supports these odds: typical early-month highs in Tokyo average 30–32°C amid the seasonal influence of the strengthened Pacific High, which promotes subsidence, clear skies, and daytime heating. Above-normal summer temperatures are expected nationwide per JMA outlooks, driven by persistent high-pressure patterns after the rainy season, though urban heat-island effects and high humidity can amplify perceived warmth without necessarily pushing the official maximum higher.
Recent model guidance and the absence of incoming fronts or typhoon influences keep the risk of exceeding 32°C low (under 5% combined), aligning with the market's minimal pricing on outliers. Any last-minute shifts in cloud cover or wind could nudge the outcome toward 31°C, but current data favor the 30°C resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volumen
$70,344Fecha de finalización
5 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Tokyo's highest temperature on August 5, 2026, centers on 30°C as the clear favorite (66% implied probability), with 31°C a solid secondary option (30.5%).** This distribution reflects the latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecast of a maximum of 30°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, following a 29°C reading the prior day.
August climatology supports these odds: typical early-month highs in Tokyo average 30–32°C amid the seasonal influence of the strengthened Pacific High, which promotes subsidence, clear skies, and daytime heating. Above-normal summer temperatures are expected nationwide per JMA outlooks, driven by persistent high-pressure patterns after the rainy season, though urban heat-island effects and high humidity can amplify perceived warmth without necessarily pushing the official maximum higher.
Recent model guidance and the absence of incoming fronts or typhoon influences keep the risk of exceeding 32°C low (under 5% combined), aligning with the market's minimal pricing on outliers. Any last-minute shifts in cloud cover or wind could nudge the outcome toward 31°C, but current data favor the 30°C resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$70,344Fecha de finalización
5 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Tokyo's highest temperature on August 5, 2026, centers on 30°C as the clear favorite (66% implied probability), with 31°C a solid secondary option (30.5%).** This distribution reflects the latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecast of a maximum of 30°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, following a 29°C reading the prior day. August climatology supports these odds: typical early-month highs in Tokyo average 30–32°C amid the seasonal influence of the strengthened Pacific High, which promotes subsidence, clear skies, and daytime heating. Above-normal summer temperatures are expected nationwide per JMA outlooks, driven by persistent high-pressure patterns after the rainy season, though urban heat-island effects and high humidity can amplify perceived warmth without necessarily pushing the official maximum higher. Recent model guidance and the absence of incoming fronts or typhoon influences keep the risk of exceeding 32°C low (under 5% combined), aligning with the market's minimal pricing on outliers. Any last-minute shifts in cloud cover or wind could nudge the outcome toward 31°C, but current data favor the 30°C resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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