**Recent forecasts from Météo-France point to a cooldown in Île-de-France, with Paris expected to see morning lows near 15–17°C on August 6 followed by similar or slightly cooler overnight conditions into August 7 under clearing skies.** This has shifted trader focus toward the 11–13°C range, where the market now assigns roughly 87% combined implied probability. The primary scientific drivers are enhanced nocturnal radiative cooling under reduced cloud cover and advection of cooler maritime air, which can drop surface temperatures 2–4°C below seasonal normals (typical August minima 14–16°C). Model consensus favors a minimum around 12°C as the most probable outcome, with 11°C remaining plausible if winds stay light and skies stay clear through dawn. Higher probabilities for 14°C+ outcomes have faded as the cooler spell materialized, while sub-10°C scenarios stay discounted given historical rarity in early August and the absence of stronger cold-air advection. Upcoming official updates from Météo-France and regional observations on the morning of August 7 will provide the final data for resolution, with any last-minute model shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind likely determining whether the low settles at 12°C or edges toward 11°C or 13°C.