Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo's August 6 maximum will likely fall near the long-term August average of 31–32°C, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 32°C and 33°C. Persistent subtropical high pressure and above-normal seasonal temperatures expected after the 2025 record summer favor slight daytime warming, while local factors such as urban heat-island effects, variable cloud cover, and potential weak frontal passages introduce enough day-to-day uncertainty to keep probabilities for 31°C and 34°C within reach. Official guidance updates through the evening of August 5 will refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Tokio el 6 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Tokio el 6 de agosto?
32°C 40%
33°C 30%
31°C 19%
34°C 11%
NUEVO
$10,194 Vol.
NUEVO
$10,194 Vol.
6 ago 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
5%
31°C
19%
32°C
40%
33°C
30%
34°C
11%
35°C
2%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 40%
33°C 30%
31°C 19%
34°C 11%
NUEVO
$10,194 Vol.
NUEVO
$10,194 Vol.
6 ago 2026
26°C or below
$801 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$896 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,519 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$735 Vol.
2%
30°C
$721 Vol.
5%
31°C
$1,142 Vol.
19%
32°C
$898 Vol.
40%
33°C
$866 Vol.
30%
34°C
$1,157 Vol.
11%
35°C
$671 Vol.
2%
36°C or higher
$788 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo's August 6 maximum will likely fall near the long-term August average of 31–32°C, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 32°C and 33°C. Persistent subtropical high pressure and above-normal seasonal temperatures expected after the 2025 record summer favor slight daytime warming, while local factors such as urban heat-island effects, variable cloud cover, and potential weak frontal passages introduce enough day-to-day uncertainty to keep probabilities for 31°C and 34°C within reach. Official guidance updates through the evening of August 5 will refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volumen
$10,194Fecha de finalización
6 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo's August 6 maximum will likely fall near the long-term August average of 31–32°C, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 32°C and 33°C. Persistent subtropical high pressure and above-normal seasonal temperatures expected after the 2025 record summer favor slight daytime warming, while local factors such as urban heat-island effects, variable cloud cover, and potential weak frontal passages introduce enough day-to-day uncertainty to keep probabilities for 31°C and 34°C within reach. Official guidance updates through the evening of August 5 will refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$10,194Fecha de finalización
6 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo's August 6 maximum will likely fall near the long-term August average of 31–32°C, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 32°C and 33°C. Persistent subtropical high pressure and above-normal seasonal temperatures expected after the 2025 record summer favor slight daytime warming, while local factors such as urban heat-island effects, variable cloud cover, and potential weak frontal passages introduce enough day-to-day uncertainty to keep probabilities for 31°C and 34°C within reach. Official guidance updates through the evening of August 5 will refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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