Recent numerical weather prediction models from sources like the GFS and ECMWF indicate Moscow's June 15 high will likely peak near 21–22°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with isolated showers possible. This consensus drives the near-even market split between those two outcomes, with lower probabilities assigned to 20°C or 23°C reflecting residual spread in ensemble runs. Key differentiating factors include uncertainties in daytime cloud cover and solar insolation, variable low-level moisture advection from Atlantic air masses, and localized urban heat island effects. Historical June averages near 22°C provide context, though short-term steering patterns and frontal timing introduce the modest forecast dispersion captured in trader pricing. Updated model guidance ahead of resolution could refine these probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Moscow on June 15?
Highest temperature in Moscow on June 15?
21°C 32%
22°C 30%
20°C 20%
23°C 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 jun 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
5%
20°C
20%
21°C
32%
22°C
30%
23°C
11%
24°C
5%
25°C
3%
26°C or higher
<1%
21°C 32%
22°C 30%
20°C 20%
23°C 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 jun 2026
16°C or below
$303 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$533 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$383 Vol.
1%
19°C
$509 Vol.
5%
20°C
$218 Vol.
20%
21°C
$155 Vol.
32%
22°C
$245 Vol.
30%
23°C
$345 Vol.
11%
24°C
$609 Vol.
5%
25°C
$1,414 Vol.
3%
26°C or higher
$2,578 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from sources like the GFS and ECMWF indicate Moscow's June 15 high will likely peak near 21–22°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with isolated showers possible. This consensus drives the near-even market split between those two outcomes, with lower probabilities assigned to 20°C or 23°C reflecting residual spread in ensemble runs. Key differentiating factors include uncertainties in daytime cloud cover and solar insolation, variable low-level moisture advection from Atlantic air masses, and localized urban heat island effects. Historical June averages near 22°C provide context, though short-term steering patterns and frontal timing introduce the modest forecast dispersion captured in trader pricing. Updated model guidance ahead of resolution could refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jun 13, 2026, 12:23 AM ET
Volumen
$7,236Fecha de finalización
15 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 13, 2026, 12:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from sources like the GFS and ECMWF indicate Moscow's June 15 high will likely peak near 21–22°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with isolated showers possible. This consensus drives the near-even market split between those two outcomes, with lower probabilities assigned to 20°C or 23°C reflecting residual spread in ensemble runs. Key differentiating factors include uncertainties in daytime cloud cover and solar insolation, variable low-level moisture advection from Atlantic air masses, and localized urban heat island effects. Historical June averages near 22°C provide context, though short-term steering patterns and frontal timing introduce the modest forecast dispersion captured in trader pricing. Updated model guidance ahead of resolution could refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$7,236Fecha de finalización
15 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 13, 2026, 12:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models from sources like the GFS and ECMWF indicate Moscow's June 15 high will likely peak near 21–22°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with isolated showers possible. This consensus drives the near-even market split between those two outcomes, with lower probabilities assigned to 20°C or 23°C reflecting residual spread in ensemble runs. Key differentiating factors include uncertainties in daytime cloud cover and solar insolation, variable low-level moisture advection from Atlantic air masses, and localized urban heat island effects. Historical June averages near 22°C provide context, though short-term steering patterns and frontal timing introduce the modest forecast dispersion captured in trader pricing. Updated model guidance ahead of resolution could refine these probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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