As of mid-August 2026, roughly 37 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the total in the 36–39 range that commands 82.5% market probability. This elevated pace exceeds typical midterm cycles and stems from members pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids, combined with retirements amid a narrow GOP majority and historically high institutional frustration. Recent additions in July and early August, including several subcommittee chairs, have stabilized the count near 37–40 according to Ballotpedia, House Press Gallery, and AP tracking. Traders view further late announcements as possible but limited before filing deadlines, while scenarios for significantly higher or lower totals remain priced below 7% due to the already extensive list of departures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos miembros republicanos de la Cámara de Representantes no se postularán en 2026?
¿Cuántos miembros republicanos de la Cámara de Representantes no se postularán en 2026?
36–39 82.5%
40–43 6.2%
32–35 4.6%
44+ 2.3%
$71,865 Vol.
$71,865 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<24
1%
24–27
2%
28–31
1%
32–35
5%
36–39
83%
40–43
6%
44+
2%
36–39 82.5%
40–43 6.2%
32–35 4.6%
44+ 2.3%
$71,865 Vol.
$71,865 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<24
$6,266 Vol.
1%
24–27
$20,164 Vol.
2%
28–31
$23,648 Vol.
1%
32–35
$6,174 Vol.
5%
36–39
$8,153 Vol.
83%
40–43
$3,871 Vol.
6%
44+
$3,589 Vol.
2%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, roughly 37 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the total in the 36–39 range that commands 82.5% market probability. This elevated pace exceeds typical midterm cycles and stems from members pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids, combined with retirements amid a narrow GOP majority and historically high institutional frustration. Recent additions in July and early August, including several subcommittee chairs, have stabilized the count near 37–40 according to Ballotpedia, House Press Gallery, and AP tracking. Traders view further late announcements as possible but limited before filing deadlines, while scenarios for significantly higher or lower totals remain priced below 7% due to the already extensive list of departures.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volumen
$71,865Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, roughly 37 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the total in the 36–39 range that commands 82.5% market probability. This elevated pace exceeds typical midterm cycles and stems from members pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids, combined with retirements amid a narrow GOP majority and historically high institutional frustration. Recent additions in July and early August, including several subcommittee chairs, have stabilized the count near 37–40 according to Ballotpedia, House Press Gallery, and AP tracking. Traders view further late announcements as possible but limited before filing deadlines, while scenarios for significantly higher or lower totals remain priced below 7% due to the already extensive list of departures.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$71,865Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of mid-August 2026, roughly 37 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the total in the 36–39 range that commands 82.5% market probability. This elevated pace exceeds typical midterm cycles and stems from members pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids, combined with retirements amid a narrow GOP majority and historically high institutional frustration. Recent additions in July and early August, including several subcommittee chairs, have stabilized the count near 37–40 according to Ballotpedia, House Press Gallery, and AP tracking. Traders view further late announcements as possible but limited before filing deadlines, while scenarios for significantly higher or lower totals remain priced below 7% due to the already extensive list of departures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Será exactamente 7 el número de senadores republicanos que se retiren en 2026?
77%
Sí
¿Será el número de miembros demócratas de la Cámara que se retiren en 2026 entre 20 y 23 inclusive?
53%
Sí
¿No ganarán los titulares republicanos de la Cámara entre cuatro y seis elecciones de nominación en el ciclo de 2026?
93%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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