Recent announcements show roughly 20 Democratic House incumbents declining to seek re-election in 2026, a figure elevated by senior members citing extended service and shifting district dynamics after redistricting. Trader consensus centers on the 32–35 range because additional departures remain possible before filing deadlines, driven by members weighing higher-office bids, institutional fatigue, or primary vulnerabilities in battleground seats. The tight spread among leading brackets reflects uncertainty over how many more will exit versus stay, with historical midterm retirement patterns and ongoing leadership transitions providing the main reference points. Further retirements or Senate candidacies in coming months could push totals higher, while a slowdown in announcements would favor lower brackets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado32–35 30.2%
24–27 22%
28–31 18%
20–23 15.4%
$31,637 Vol.
$31,637 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<20
2%
20–23
15%
24–27
22%
28–31
18%
32–35
30%
36–39
3%
40 o más
13%
32–35 30.2%
24–27 22%
28–31 18%
20–23 15.4%
$31,637 Vol.
$31,637 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<20
$16,991 Vol.
2%
20–23
$5,244 Vol.
15%
24–27
$4,156 Vol.
22%
28–31
$1,164 Vol.
18%
32–35
$3,574 Vol.
30%
36–39
$508 Vol.
3%
40 o más
$0 Vol.
13%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements show roughly 20 Democratic House incumbents declining to seek re-election in 2026, a figure elevated by senior members citing extended service and shifting district dynamics after redistricting. Trader consensus centers on the 32–35 range because additional departures remain possible before filing deadlines, driven by members weighing higher-office bids, institutional fatigue, or primary vulnerabilities in battleground seats. The tight spread among leading brackets reflects uncertainty over how many more will exit versus stay, with historical midterm retirement patterns and ongoing leadership transitions providing the main reference points. Further retirements or Senate candidacies in coming months could push totals higher, while a slowdown in announcements would favor lower brackets.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volumen
$31,637Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements show roughly 20 Democratic House incumbents declining to seek re-election in 2026, a figure elevated by senior members citing extended service and shifting district dynamics after redistricting. Trader consensus centers on the 32–35 range because additional departures remain possible before filing deadlines, driven by members weighing higher-office bids, institutional fatigue, or primary vulnerabilities in battleground seats. The tight spread among leading brackets reflects uncertainty over how many more will exit versus stay, with historical midterm retirement patterns and ongoing leadership transitions providing the main reference points. Further retirements or Senate candidacies in coming months could push totals higher, while a slowdown in announcements would favor lower brackets.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$31,637Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent announcements show roughly 20 Democratic House incumbents declining to seek re-election in 2026, a figure elevated by senior members citing extended service and shifting district dynamics after redistricting. Trader consensus centers on the 32–35 range because additional departures remain possible before filing deadlines, driven by members weighing higher-office bids, institutional fatigue, or primary vulnerabilities in battleground seats. The tight spread among leading brackets reflects uncertainty over how many more will exit versus stay, with historical midterm retirement patterns and ongoing leadership transitions providing the main reference points. Further retirements or Senate candidacies in coming months could push totals higher, while a slowdown in announcements would favor lower brackets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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