As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia tracks 23 Democratic House incumbents who have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's leading 20–23 outcome priced at 48%. This count reflects a wave of retirements concentrated among senior members citing age, long tenure, and institutional factors, including Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Jerry Nadler, and Dwight Evans. The adjacent 24–27 bin at 33% accounts for the possibility of a modest number of additional announcements ahead of filing deadlines in various states. Broader context includes elevated overall House turnover compared with recent cycles, driven by primary challenges, redistricting pressures in some states, and members pursuing other offices, though Democratic departures remain lower than Republican ones so far. Trader consensus incorporates historical patterns of late-cycle decisions while treating the current confirmed total as the baseline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado20–23 48.0%
24–27 34%
28–31 18.2%
40 o más 7.4%
$45,075 Vol.
$45,075 Vol.
30 ago 2026
<20
1%
20–23
48%
24–27
34%
28–31
10%
32–35
7%
36–39
<1%
40 o más
7%
20–23 48.0%
24–27 34%
28–31 18.2%
40 o más 7.4%
$45,075 Vol.
$45,075 Vol.
30 ago 2026
<20
$17,832 Vol.
1%
20–23
$9,852 Vol.
48%
24–27
$7,874 Vol.
34%
28–31
$1,930 Vol.
10%
32–35
$4,533 Vol.
7%
36–39
$1,355 Vol.
<1%
40 o más
$1,699 Vol.
7%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia tracks 23 Democratic House incumbents who have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's leading 20–23 outcome priced at 48%. This count reflects a wave of retirements concentrated among senior members citing age, long tenure, and institutional factors, including Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Jerry Nadler, and Dwight Evans. The adjacent 24–27 bin at 33% accounts for the possibility of a modest number of additional announcements ahead of filing deadlines in various states. Broader context includes elevated overall House turnover compared with recent cycles, driven by primary challenges, redistricting pressures in some states, and members pursuing other offices, though Democratic departures remain lower than Republican ones so far. Trader consensus incorporates historical patterns of late-cycle decisions while treating the current confirmed total as the baseline.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volumen
$45,075Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia tracks 23 Democratic House incumbents who have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's leading 20–23 outcome priced at 48%. This count reflects a wave of retirements concentrated among senior members citing age, long tenure, and institutional factors, including Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Jerry Nadler, and Dwight Evans. The adjacent 24–27 bin at 33% accounts for the possibility of a modest number of additional announcements ahead of filing deadlines in various states. Broader context includes elevated overall House turnover compared with recent cycles, driven by primary challenges, redistricting pressures in some states, and members pursuing other offices, though Democratic departures remain lower than Republican ones so far. Trader consensus incorporates historical patterns of late-cycle decisions while treating the current confirmed total as the baseline.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$45,075Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia tracks 23 Democratic House incumbents who have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's leading 20–23 outcome priced at 48%. This count reflects a wave of retirements concentrated among senior members citing age, long tenure, and institutional factors, including Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Jerry Nadler, and Dwight Evans. The adjacent 24–27 bin at 33% accounts for the possibility of a modest number of additional announcements ahead of filing deadlines in various states. Broader context includes elevated overall House turnover compared with recent cycles, driven by primary challenges, redistricting pressures in some states, and members pursuing other offices, though Democratic departures remain lower than Republican ones so far. Trader consensus incorporates historical patterns of late-cycle decisions while treating the current confirmed total as the baseline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Será el número de miembros republicanos de la Cámara que se retiren en 2026 entre 36 y 39, inclusive?
83%
Sí
¿Será exactamente 7 el número de senadores republicanos que se retiren en 2026?
77%
Sí
¿No ganarán los titulares demócratas de la Cámara entre diez y doce elecciones de nominación en el ciclo de 2026?
59%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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