Republican nominee Kurt Alme holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Montana Senate race, consistent with the state's strong Republican tilt in federal contests. Alme secured the GOP nomination decisively in the June 2 primary after receiving endorsements including from President Trump, while Democrat Alani Bankhead prevailed in a more competitive primary and independent Seth Bodnar, backed by former Senator Jon Tester, entered the general election field. Recent polls from June and July show Alme ahead by double digits in a multi-candidate race, aligning with historical voting patterns and nonpartisan race ratings classifying the contest as solidly Republican. Traders assign the Republican outcome a 91% implied probability reflecting these structural advantages and limited recent shifts. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high independent turnout consolidating behind Bodnar, unexpected Democratic mobilization, or major late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawals or significant polling errors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones al Senado de Montana
Ganador de las elecciones al Senado de Montana
Republicano 91%
Independiente 9.4%
Demócrata <1%
$109,616 Vol.
$109,616 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
91%
Independiente
9%
Demócrata
<1%
Republicano 91%
Independiente 9.4%
Demócrata <1%
$109,616 Vol.
$109,616 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
$55,848 Vol.
91%
Independiente
$14,047 Vol.
9%
Demócrata
$39,721 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican nominee Kurt Alme holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Montana Senate race, consistent with the state's strong Republican tilt in federal contests. Alme secured the GOP nomination decisively in the June 2 primary after receiving endorsements including from President Trump, while Democrat Alani Bankhead prevailed in a more competitive primary and independent Seth Bodnar, backed by former Senator Jon Tester, entered the general election field. Recent polls from June and July show Alme ahead by double digits in a multi-candidate race, aligning with historical voting patterns and nonpartisan race ratings classifying the contest as solidly Republican. Traders assign the Republican outcome a 91% implied probability reflecting these structural advantages and limited recent shifts. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high independent turnout consolidating behind Bodnar, unexpected Democratic mobilization, or major late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawals or significant polling errors.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volumen
$109,616Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican nominee Kurt Alme holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Montana Senate race, consistent with the state's strong Republican tilt in federal contests. Alme secured the GOP nomination decisively in the June 2 primary after receiving endorsements including from President Trump, while Democrat Alani Bankhead prevailed in a more competitive primary and independent Seth Bodnar, backed by former Senator Jon Tester, entered the general election field. Recent polls from June and July show Alme ahead by double digits in a multi-candidate race, aligning with historical voting patterns and nonpartisan race ratings classifying the contest as solidly Republican. Traders assign the Republican outcome a 91% implied probability reflecting these structural advantages and limited recent shifts. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high independent turnout consolidating behind Bodnar, unexpected Democratic mobilization, or major late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawals or significant polling errors.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$109,616Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican nominee Kurt Alme holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Montana Senate race, consistent with the state's strong Republican tilt in federal contests. Alme secured the GOP nomination decisively in the June 2 primary after receiving endorsements including from President Trump, while Democrat Alani Bankhead prevailed in a more competitive primary and independent Seth Bodnar, backed by former Senator Jon Tester, entered the general election field. Recent polls from June and July show Alme ahead by double digits in a multi-candidate race, aligning with historical voting patterns and nonpartisan race ratings classifying the contest as solidly Republican. Traders assign the Republican outcome a 91% implied probability reflecting these structural advantages and limited recent shifts. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high independent turnout consolidating behind Bodnar, unexpected Democratic mobilization, or major late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawals or significant polling errors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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