Incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines' March withdrawal opened Montana's Senate seat, yet trader consensus prices Republicans at 77% to retain it, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean—evident in recent presidential margins and Jon Tester's narrow 2024 hold on the other seat. Independent Seth Bodnar, former University of Montana president, draws 17.4% implied probability buoyed by leading early fundraising totals reported April 17, positioning him as a potential vote-splitter. Democrats lag at 3.8% amid a crowded five-candidate primary plagued by underfunding, per May analyses. June 2 primaries loom as the next catalyst, with no public general election polls since Daines' exit.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones al Senado de Montana
Ganador de las elecciones al Senado de Montana
Republicano 77%
Independiente 16.0%
Demócrata 3.8%
$72,456 Vol.
$72,456 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
77%
Independiente
16%
Demócrata
4%
Republicano 77%
Independiente 16.0%
Demócrata 3.8%
$72,456 Vol.
$72,456 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
$37,391 Vol.
77%
Independiente
$1,510 Vol.
16%
Demócrata
$33,554 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines' March withdrawal opened Montana's Senate seat, yet trader consensus prices Republicans at 77% to retain it, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean—evident in recent presidential margins and Jon Tester's narrow 2024 hold on the other seat. Independent Seth Bodnar, former University of Montana president, draws 17.4% implied probability buoyed by leading early fundraising totals reported April 17, positioning him as a potential vote-splitter. Democrats lag at 3.8% amid a crowded five-candidate primary plagued by underfunding, per May analyses. June 2 primaries loom as the next catalyst, with no public general election polls since Daines' exit.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volumen
$72,456Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines' March withdrawal opened Montana's Senate seat, yet trader consensus prices Republicans at 77% to retain it, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean—evident in recent presidential margins and Jon Tester's narrow 2024 hold on the other seat. Independent Seth Bodnar, former University of Montana president, draws 17.4% implied probability buoyed by leading early fundraising totals reported April 17, positioning him as a potential vote-splitter. Democrats lag at 3.8% amid a crowded five-candidate primary plagued by underfunding, per May analyses. June 2 primaries loom as the next catalyst, with no public general election polls since Daines' exit.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$72,456Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Steve Daines' March withdrawal opened Montana's Senate seat, yet trader consensus prices Republicans at 77% to retain it, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean—evident in recent presidential margins and Jon Tester's narrow 2024 hold on the other seat. Independent Seth Bodnar, former University of Montana president, draws 17.4% implied probability buoyed by leading early fundraising totals reported April 17, positioning him as a potential vote-splitter. Democrats lag at 3.8% amid a crowded five-candidate primary plagued by underfunding, per May analyses. June 2 primaries loom as the next catalyst, with no public general election polls since Daines' exit.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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