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Política·Oriente Medio

¿Las fuerzas israelíes se retiran de más allá del río Litani por...?

icon for ¿Las fuerzas israelíes se retiran de más allá del río Litani por...?
Política·Oriente Medio

¿Las fuerzas israelíes se retiran de más allá del río Litani por...?

$565,817 Vol.

31 jul 2026
Polymarket

$565,817 Vol.

Polymarket

30 de junio

$459,604 Vol.

1%

July 31

$63,587 Vol.

10%

December 31

$41,743 Vol.

49%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli forces remain positioned north of the Litani River in southern Lebanon following ground advances confirmed by Prime Minister Netanyahu in late May 2026, expanding a buffer zone established earlier in the 2026 Lebanon war. Ceasefire extensions and U.S.-brokered talks in June produced agreements on “pilot zones” for Lebanese Armed Forces deployment and Hezbollah withdrawal north of the river, yet Israeli officials have stated troops will stay in security areas without a fixed timeline until threats are eliminated. Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations have linked any broader deal to Israeli withdrawal, a condition rejected by Israel, while sporadic strikes continue amid partial returns of displaced civilians. UNIFIL’s mandate ends in December 2026, adding pressure on implementation of Resolution 1701. These factors shape trader views on whether diplomatic or military timelines will produce a verified pullback by the market’s resolution date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volumen
$565,817
Mercado abierto
Jun 22, 2026, 9:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli forces remain positioned north of the Litani River in southern Lebanon following ground advances confirmed by Prime Minister Netanyahu in late May 2026, expanding a buffer zone established earlier in the 2026 Lebanon war. Ceasefire extensions and U.S.-brokered talks in June produced agreements on “pilot zones” for Lebanese Armed Forces deployment and Hezbollah withdrawal north of the river, yet Israeli officials have stated troops will stay in security areas without a fixed timeline until threats are eliminated. Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations have linked any broader deal to Israeli withdrawal, a condition rejected by Israel, while sporadic strikes continue amid partial returns of displaced civilians. UNIFIL’s mandate ends in December 2026, adding pressure on implementation of Resolution 1701. These factors shape trader views on whether diplomatic or military timelines will produce a verified pullback by the market’s resolution date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volumen
$565,817
Mercado abierto
Jun 22, 2026, 9:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Las fuerzas israelíes se retiran de más allá del río Litani por...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 4 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "December 31" con 49%, seguido de "July 31" con 10%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 49¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 49% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Las fuerzas israelíes se retiran de más allá del río Litani por...?" ha generado $565.8K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jun 7, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Las fuerzas israelíes se retiran de más allá del río Litani por...?", explora los 4 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Las fuerzas israelíes se retiran de más allá del río Litani por...?" es "December 31" con 49%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 49% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "July 31" con 10%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Las fuerzas israelíes se retiran de más allá del río Litani por...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.