South Korea’s Democratic Party holds a supermajority in the National Assembly, creating a high procedural barrier to impeaching President Lee Jae-myung, whose five-year term runs through 2030. A June 2026 citizen petition calling for his removal gathered over 100,000 signatures yet failed to advance, reflecting the ruling party’s seat advantage. Lee’s approval rating has softened to a record-low 44 percent amid local election fallout and economic pressures, but no major scandals, legislative gridlock, or sustained protests have emerged to shift momentum toward formal proceedings. Ongoing constitutional reform talks remain at the proposal stage and do not alter current term rules. Traders therefore assign only a low-single-digit probability to removal before 2027, consistent with institutional thresholds and the absence of credible opposition triggers.