Recent ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF for Istanbul on September 15 indicate a minimum temperature likely between 17–19°C, driven by moderate northerly flow, partial cloud cover limiting nocturnal radiative cooling, and influence from the warmer Sea of Marmara. Recent cooling from a prior warm spell and scattered thunderstorm activity have introduced spread in model outputs, with some runs favoring clearer skies and lower readings near 15°C while others keep overnight lows above 18°C. This genuine uncertainty in boundary-layer conditions and steering patterns explains the closely matched market-implied odds between sub-14°C and 24°C+ scenarios, as traders weigh the latest model runs ahead of final observational data from local stations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Estambul el 15 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Estambul el 15 de septiembre?
24°C o más 76%
14°C o menos 42%
17°C 23%
16°C 22%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 sep 2026
14°C o menos
42%
15°C
22%
16°C
22%
17°C
23%
18°C
22%
19°C
22%
20°C
21%
21°C
2%
22°C
18%
23°C
18%
24°C o más
76%
24°C o más 76%
14°C o menos 42%
17°C 23%
16°C 22%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 sep 2026
14°C o menos
$0 Vol.
42%
15°C
$0 Vol.
22%
16°C
$0 Vol.
22%
17°C
$0 Vol.
23%
18°C
$0 Vol.
22%
19°C
$0 Vol.
22%
20°C
$50 Vol.
21%
21°C
$10 Vol.
2%
22°C
$10 Vol.
18%
23°C
$10 Vol.
18%
24°C o más
$10 Vol.
76%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF for Istanbul on September 15 indicate a minimum temperature likely between 17–19°C, driven by moderate northerly flow, partial cloud cover limiting nocturnal radiative cooling, and influence from the warmer Sea of Marmara. Recent cooling from a prior warm spell and scattered thunderstorm activity have introduced spread in model outputs, with some runs favoring clearer skies and lower readings near 15°C while others keep overnight lows above 18°C. This genuine uncertainty in boundary-layer conditions and steering patterns explains the closely matched market-implied odds between sub-14°C and 24°C+ scenarios, as traders weigh the latest model runs ahead of final observational data from local stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Volumen
$90Fecha de finalización
15 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF for Istanbul on September 15 indicate a minimum temperature likely between 17–19°C, driven by moderate northerly flow, partial cloud cover limiting nocturnal radiative cooling, and influence from the warmer Sea of Marmara. Recent cooling from a prior warm spell and scattered thunderstorm activity have introduced spread in model outputs, with some runs favoring clearer skies and lower readings near 15°C while others keep overnight lows above 18°C. This genuine uncertainty in boundary-layer conditions and steering patterns explains the closely matched market-implied odds between sub-14°C and 24°C+ scenarios, as traders weigh the latest model runs ahead of final observational data from local stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$90Fecha de finalización
15 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF for Istanbul on September 15 indicate a minimum temperature likely between 17–19°C, driven by moderate northerly flow, partial cloud cover limiting nocturnal radiative cooling, and influence from the warmer Sea of Marmara. Recent cooling from a prior warm spell and scattered thunderstorm activity have introduced spread in model outputs, with some runs favoring clearer skies and lower readings near 15°C while others keep overnight lows above 18°C. This genuine uncertainty in boundary-layer conditions and steering patterns explains the closely matched market-implied odds between sub-14°C and 24°C+ scenarios, as traders weigh the latest model runs ahead of final observational data from local stations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes