**Trader consensus in this market centers on a 24°C low (45.5% implied probability) for Incheon/Seoul on August 16, 2026, followed closely by 25°C (30%) and 23°C (21.5%), reflecting official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and consistent model guidance.** KMA short-range forecasts issued August 14–15 project a daily minimum of 24°C under continued rain or showers (60–70% probability), with daytime highs near 30°C amid persistent cloud cover and high humidity typical of mid-August monsoon patterns. These conditions suppress overnight radiative cooling, keeping surface temperatures elevated compared to clearer nights. Supporting data from AccuWeather and timeanddate extend similar overnight lows of 23–26°C (roughly 73–79°F) across the Seoul-Incheon metro area, aligning with August climatology where average lows hover around 22–24°C but rise with precipitation. Recent developments include active showers through August 15–17 that have maintained elevated dew points and limited diurnal temperature swings, reducing the chance of a sharp drop below 23°C. No major model shifts toward cooler air or clearer skies have emerged in the last 48 hours, anchoring sentiment around the 24°C threshold while leaving modest probability for a 23°C or 25°C outcome depending on exact rainfall timing and intensity.