**Market-implied odds favor a lowest temperature of 24°C (45.5%) in Tel Aviv on August 29, followed by 25°C (26.5%) and 26°C (23.0%), reflecting model consensus around seasonal norms for late summer.** In Tel Aviv’s Mediterranean coastal setting, overnight lows are shaped by radiative cooling under typically clear skies, moderated by high humidity (dew points often 21–23°C) and persistent westerly sea breezes that limit extreme drops. Current forecasts from multiple sources project overnight minima of 24–26°C, consistent with climatological averages near 24°C for the date, with minimal deviation expected absent a strong synoptic shift. Recent conditions show stable high pressure and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with no significant heatwave or cold advection; a slight uptick in moisture and possible isolated showers is more relevant for August 30. Traders are weighting the latest high-resolution model runs (e.g., those aligning on 24–25°C lows) and the absence of unusual cooling mechanisms, while acknowledging forecast spread from humidity and wind variations. New observational data and model updates through the evening of August 28 will further refine these implied probabilities before resolution.