Maryland’s 3rd congressional district carries a D+12 Partisan Voter Index and is rated Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic by forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Incumbent Democrat Sarah Elfreth secured her party’s nomination in the June 23, 2026 primary with roughly three-quarters of the vote against a limited field of challengers. Republican nominee Berney Flowers emerged from a similarly fragmented primary. The district’s composition, spanning heavily Democratic Howard County and parts of Anne Arundel County including Annapolis, has produced consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Elfreth’s 2024 victory. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 95.5 percent implied probability of winning the November 3 general election. A sustained national partisan shift or significant candidate-specific developments remain the primary variables that could narrow this gap before Election Day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMD-03 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
MD-03 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$36,932 Vol.
$36,932 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
96%
Partido Republicano
6%
$36,932 Vol.
$36,932 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$20,808 Vol.
96%
Partido Republicano
$16,124 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 3rd congressional district carries a D+12 Partisan Voter Index and is rated Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic by forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Incumbent Democrat Sarah Elfreth secured her party’s nomination in the June 23, 2026 primary with roughly three-quarters of the vote against a limited field of challengers. Republican nominee Berney Flowers emerged from a similarly fragmented primary. The district’s composition, spanning heavily Democratic Howard County and parts of Anne Arundel County including Annapolis, has produced consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Elfreth’s 2024 victory. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 95.5 percent implied probability of winning the November 3 general election. A sustained national partisan shift or significant candidate-specific developments remain the primary variables that could narrow this gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$36,932Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 3rd congressional district carries a D+12 Partisan Voter Index and is rated Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic by forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Incumbent Democrat Sarah Elfreth secured her party’s nomination in the June 23, 2026 primary with roughly three-quarters of the vote against a limited field of challengers. Republican nominee Berney Flowers emerged from a similarly fragmented primary. The district’s composition, spanning heavily Democratic Howard County and parts of Anne Arundel County including Annapolis, has produced consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Elfreth’s 2024 victory. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 95.5 percent implied probability of winning the November 3 general election. A sustained national partisan shift or significant candidate-specific developments remain the primary variables that could narrow this gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$36,932Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland’s 3rd congressional district carries a D+12 Partisan Voter Index and is rated Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic by forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Incumbent Democrat Sarah Elfreth secured her party’s nomination in the June 23, 2026 primary with roughly three-quarters of the vote against a limited field of challengers. Republican nominee Berney Flowers emerged from a similarly fragmented primary. The district’s composition, spanning heavily Democratic Howard County and parts of Anne Arundel County including Annapolis, has produced consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, including Elfreth’s 2024 victory. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 95.5 percent implied probability of winning the November 3 general election. A sustained national partisan shift or significant candidate-specific developments remain the primary variables that could narrow this gap before Election Day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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