Montana's strong Republican lean, reinforced by the party's 2024 statewide gains, underpins the clear trader preference for a GOP victor in the open Senate seat. Steve Daines's late withdrawal cleared the path for Kurt Alme, who secured unified party backing and an early Trump endorsement ahead of the June primary. This consolidation has limited Democratic prospects, with candidates like Reilly Neill polling far behind in a state where the last Democratic senator fell in 2024. Seth Bodnar's independent bid draws some moderate support and benefits from cross-party interest, yet recent surveys show him trailing the Republican nominee by double digits even in head-to-head matchups. With the general election six months away, traders appear to weigh the state's partisan baseline and GOP organizational edge most heavily in current pricing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones al Senado de Montana
Ganador de las elecciones al Senado de Montana
Republicano 79%
Independiente 15.8%
Demócrata 2.2%
$72,988 Vol.
$72,988 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
79%
Independiente
16%
Demócrata
2%
Republicano 79%
Independiente 15.8%
Demócrata 2.2%
$72,988 Vol.
$72,988 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
$37,499 Vol.
79%
Independiente
$1,575 Vol.
16%
Demócrata
$33,914 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Montana's strong Republican lean, reinforced by the party's 2024 statewide gains, underpins the clear trader preference for a GOP victor in the open Senate seat. Steve Daines's late withdrawal cleared the path for Kurt Alme, who secured unified party backing and an early Trump endorsement ahead of the June primary. This consolidation has limited Democratic prospects, with candidates like Reilly Neill polling far behind in a state where the last Democratic senator fell in 2024. Seth Bodnar's independent bid draws some moderate support and benefits from cross-party interest, yet recent surveys show him trailing the Republican nominee by double digits even in head-to-head matchups. With the general election six months away, traders appear to weigh the state's partisan baseline and GOP organizational edge most heavily in current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volumen
$72,988Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Montana's strong Republican lean, reinforced by the party's 2024 statewide gains, underpins the clear trader preference for a GOP victor in the open Senate seat. Steve Daines's late withdrawal cleared the path for Kurt Alme, who secured unified party backing and an early Trump endorsement ahead of the June primary. This consolidation has limited Democratic prospects, with candidates like Reilly Neill polling far behind in a state where the last Democratic senator fell in 2024. Seth Bodnar's independent bid draws some moderate support and benefits from cross-party interest, yet recent surveys show him trailing the Republican nominee by double digits even in head-to-head matchups. With the general election six months away, traders appear to weigh the state's partisan baseline and GOP organizational edge most heavily in current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$72,988Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Montana's strong Republican lean, reinforced by the party's 2024 statewide gains, underpins the clear trader preference for a GOP victor in the open Senate seat. Steve Daines's late withdrawal cleared the path for Kurt Alme, who secured unified party backing and an early Trump endorsement ahead of the June primary. This consolidation has limited Democratic prospects, with candidates like Reilly Neill polling far behind in a state where the last Democratic senator fell in 2024. Seth Bodnar's independent bid draws some moderate support and benefits from cross-party interest, yet recent surveys show him trailing the Republican nominee by double digits even in head-to-head matchups. With the general election six months away, traders appear to weigh the state's partisan baseline and GOP organizational edge most heavily in current pricing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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