Mette Frederiksen leads the market for Denmark’s next prime minister at 74 percent because her Social Democrats secured the largest share of seats in the March 2026 election and remain the pivotal force in coalition negotiations despite lacking an outright majority. Recent developments include the collapse of her initial talks after seven weeks, prompting King Frederik X on May 9 to task Venstre leader Troels Lund Poulsen with forming a center-right government excluding the Social Democrats and Moderates. Lars Løkke Rasmussen of the Moderates holds swing influence with his party’s seats, while smaller parties such as the Green Left and Danish People’s Party shape bloc dynamics. Traders appear to price in the likelihood that Poulsen’s mandate will falter and return the process to Frederiksen as caretaker prime minister ahead of any final parliamentary vote.