Traders see the 200–220 mm range as most likely for May total precipitation in Hong Kong because the southwest monsoon has delivered steady moisture since early May, consistent with Hong Kong Observatory guidance for normal-to-above-normal rainfall through July. Daily convective showers and periodic trough passages have produced moderate accumulations so far, keeping totals near the long-term May average of roughly 220–300 mm. Differentiation among the tightly clustered leading bins hinges on whether late-month activity intensifies through stronger monsoon surges or isolated thunderstorm clusters, versus a quieter pattern of lighter, more scattered rain. Official model runs and real-time radar trends will determine if totals finish closer to 200 mm or push toward 230 mm before the month closes.