**Trader consensus on the low likelihood of H.R. 22 (the SAVE Act) or its successor versions becoming law in 2026 stems from repeated Senate procedural setbacks.** The original bill cleared the House in 2025 but stalled; the reintroduced SAVE America Act passed the House in February 2026 yet failed multiple Senate amendment votes, including tallies of 48-50 and 53-47. Attempts to attach its proof-of-citizenship and photo-ID provisions to must-pass measures such as the NDAA or appropriations packages have been rejected, reflecting insufficient support to reach the 60-vote threshold to overcome a filibuster. With the legislative calendar narrowing ahead of the November midterms and no Senate floor passage as of early October, the market price reflects the absence of enacted legislation. Realistic paths that could still alter the outcome before year-end include a last-minute bipartisan compromise during a lame-duck session or successful attachment to another vehicle if internal Republican divisions ease, though both face significant structural and calendar constraints.