**The high implied probability against H.R. 22 (the SAVE Act) becoming law in 2026 stems primarily from its stalled progress in the Senate.** The bill, which would require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for federal voter registration, passed the House multiple times—including versions in April 2025 and February 2026—but has not advanced beyond Senate receipt or committee consideration. Senate rules require 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, and with Republicans holding 53 seats, the measure lacks the bipartisan support needed for cloture. As of mid-August 2026, no Senate floor vote has occurred, and procedural hurdles, partisan opposition, and competing legislative priorities have kept momentum low. Recent House efforts to attach related provisions to must-pass measures such as the NDAA or budget resolutions have not produced enacted law. With limited session time remaining in the 119th Congress and no scheduled path to 60 votes, traders assess enactment before December 31, 2026, as unlikely. Late-session reconciliation attempts or unexpected deals remain theoretically possible but face significant institutional and vote-count barriers.