OpenAI's 89.5% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of August stems primarily from its consistent releases of advanced large language models with strong agentic capabilities, such as improved tool use, multi-step reasoning, and integration with developer platforms that have outpaced most rivals in benchmarks and real-world adoption. Traders see this positioning as driven by OpenAI's scale in training infrastructure and rapid iteration cycles, while competitors like Anthropic, Google, and Meta remain at or below 1% due to slower demonstrated progress on fully autonomous agents or narrower deployment footprints. With resolution imminent, limited recent catalysts have shifted sentiment, underscoring how OpenAI's execution on model updates and ecosystem tools continues to anchor the market consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoOpenAI 91%
Moonshot 5.8%
Z.ai 1.7%
Anthropic <1%
$21,008 Vol.
$21,008 Vol.
31 ago 2026
OpenAI
91%
Moonshot
6%
Z.ai
2%
Anthropic
1%
Xiaomi
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
OpenAI 91%
Moonshot 5.8%
Z.ai 1.7%
Anthropic <1%
$21,008 Vol.
$21,008 Vol.
31 ago 2026
OpenAI
$4,926 Vol.
91%
Moonshot
$4,940 Vol.
6%
Z.ai
$1,600 Vol.
2%
Anthropic
$1,291 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$1,158 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$438 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$378 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$715 Vol.
<1%
$363 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$702 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$489 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$622 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$954 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$592 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$323 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$450 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$336 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$733 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI's 89.5% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of August stems primarily from its consistent releases of advanced large language models with strong agentic capabilities, such as improved tool use, multi-step reasoning, and integration with developer platforms that have outpaced most rivals in benchmarks and real-world adoption. Traders see this positioning as driven by OpenAI's scale in training infrastructure and rapid iteration cycles, while competitors like Anthropic, Google, and Meta remain at or below 1% due to slower demonstrated progress on fully autonomous agents or narrower deployment footprints. With resolution imminent, limited recent catalysts have shifted sentiment, underscoring how OpenAI's execution on model updates and ecosystem tools continues to anchor the market consensus.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Volumen
$21,008Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agentResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI's 89.5% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of August stems primarily from its consistent releases of advanced large language models with strong agentic capabilities, such as improved tool use, multi-step reasoning, and integration with developer platforms that have outpaced most rivals in benchmarks and real-world adoption. Traders see this positioning as driven by OpenAI's scale in training infrastructure and rapid iteration cycles, while competitors like Anthropic, Google, and Meta remain at or below 1% due to slower demonstrated progress on fully autonomous agents or narrower deployment footprints. With resolution imminent, limited recent catalysts have shifted sentiment, underscoring how OpenAI's execution on model updates and ecosystem tools continues to anchor the market consensus.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$21,008Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agentResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI's 89.5% implied probability for second-best AI agent lab by end of August stems primarily from its consistent releases of advanced large language models with strong agentic capabilities, such as improved tool use, multi-step reasoning, and integration with developer platforms that have outpaced most rivals in benchmarks and real-world adoption. Traders see this positioning as driven by OpenAI's scale in training infrastructure and rapid iteration cycles, while competitors like Anthropic, Google, and Meta remain at or below 1% due to slower demonstrated progress on fully autonomous agents or narrower deployment footprints. With resolution imminent, limited recent catalysts have shifted sentiment, underscoring how OpenAI's execution on model updates and ecosystem tools continues to anchor the market consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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