Recent agentic benchmarks position Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 at the frontier, with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and Codex close behind on coding and tool-use tasks, leaving third place highly contested. Moonshot's July Kimi K3 release narrowed the gap to U.S. leaders on several independent evaluations while offering superior price-performance, boosting its implied odds alongside Alibaba's Qwen series and DeepSeek's efficient open-weight models. Meta, Google, and ByteDance maintain strong platform integrations and developer ecosystems that could support agent workflows, yet lack the latest headline capability jumps. Traders see the August cutoff as too near for decisive new releases, sustaining tight probabilities across these labs amid ongoing Chinese progress and U.S. model iteration.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAlibaba 24%
Xiaomi 24%
Moonshot 22%
DeepSeek 22%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ago 2026
Alibaba
24%
Xiaomi
24%
Moonshot
22%
DeepSeek
22%
SpaceXAI
20%
Baidu
19%
Meta
17%
Anthropic
16%
Z.ai
15%
15%
OpenAI
14%
MiniMax
14%
Nvidia
14%
ByteDance
14%
Microsoft
14%
Mistral
14%
Meituan
12%
Amazon
12%
Alibaba 24%
Xiaomi 24%
Moonshot 22%
DeepSeek 22%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ago 2026
Alibaba
$10 Vol.
24%
Xiaomi
$10 Vol.
24%
Moonshot
$10 Vol.
22%
DeepSeek
$10 Vol.
22%
SpaceXAI
$10 Vol.
20%
Baidu
$10 Vol.
19%
Meta
$10 Vol.
17%
Anthropic
$66 Vol.
16%
Z.ai
$10 Vol.
15%
$10 Vol.
15%
OpenAI
$30 Vol.
14%
MiniMax
$58 Vol.
14%
Nvidia
$72 Vol.
14%
ByteDance
$41 Vol.
14%
Microsoft
$54 Vol.
14%
Mistral
$43 Vol.
14%
Meituan
$34 Vol.
12%
Amazon
$74 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent agentic benchmarks position Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 at the frontier, with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and Codex close behind on coding and tool-use tasks, leaving third place highly contested. Moonshot's July Kimi K3 release narrowed the gap to U.S. leaders on several independent evaluations while offering superior price-performance, boosting its implied odds alongside Alibaba's Qwen series and DeepSeek's efficient open-weight models. Meta, Google, and ByteDance maintain strong platform integrations and developer ecosystems that could support agent workflows, yet lack the latest headline capability jumps. Traders see the August cutoff as too near for decisive new releases, sustaining tight probabilities across these labs amid ongoing Chinese progress and U.S. model iteration.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Volumen
$562Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent agentic benchmarks position Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 at the frontier, with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and Codex close behind on coding and tool-use tasks, leaving third place highly contested. Moonshot's July Kimi K3 release narrowed the gap to U.S. leaders on several independent evaluations while offering superior price-performance, boosting its implied odds alongside Alibaba's Qwen series and DeepSeek's efficient open-weight models. Meta, Google, and ByteDance maintain strong platform integrations and developer ecosystems that could support agent workflows, yet lack the latest headline capability jumps. Traders see the August cutoff as too near for decisive new releases, sustaining tight probabilities across these labs amid ongoing Chinese progress and U.S. model iteration.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$562Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent agentic benchmarks position Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 at the frontier, with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and Codex close behind on coding and tool-use tasks, leaving third place highly contested. Moonshot's July Kimi K3 release narrowed the gap to U.S. leaders on several independent evaluations while offering superior price-performance, boosting its implied odds alongside Alibaba's Qwen series and DeepSeek's efficient open-weight models. Meta, Google, and ByteDance maintain strong platform integrations and developer ecosystems that could support agent workflows, yet lack the latest headline capability jumps. Traders see the August cutoff as too near for decisive new releases, sustaining tight probabilities across these labs amid ongoing Chinese progress and U.S. model iteration.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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