Jon Bonck holds a commanding lead in the Republican primary runoff for Texas's 38th Congressional District, driven by his plurality finish in the March 3 primary and endorsements from President Donald Trump and Senator Ted Cruz. As the leading fundraiser among the original field of ten candidates, Bonck advanced with nearly 48 percent of the vote against Shelly deZevallos, who placed second with under 19 percent. Traders price this outcome at over 95 percent based on his established name recognition, financial advantage, and the district's solidly Republican lean following incumbent Wesley Hunt's decision to seek a Senate seat. The May 26 runoff remains the key upcoming event, with any shifts in turnout or late campaign developments among the remaining contenders representing the primary factors that could still alter the result.