Recent U.S. economic releases and the inflation trajectory from the Iran-related energy shock are anchoring trader sentiment in the US GDP growth in Q2 2026 market. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 2.0 percent annualized real GDP expansion for Q1 2026, supported by business investment in AI equipment and software, while consumer spending moderated amid weather disruptions and higher energy costs. With April CPI rising to 3.8 percent year-over-year and core PCE near 3.2 percent, market-implied odds cluster tightly between the 2.0–2.5 percent and 2.5–3.0 percent bands at 25.5 percent and 21.0 percent respectively. Analysts project modest Q2 acceleration toward 2.1–2.2 percent as fiscal tailwinds from prior tax measures offset tariff and oil-price headwinds, yet resilient nonfarm payrolls near 178,000 and a 4.3 percent unemployment rate leave room for variance. The closely matched probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve’s extended pause will sustain momentum or whether persistent inflation above 3 percent will cap consumer outlays before the July advance estimate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoUS GDP growth in Q2 2026?
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
1.5–2.0% 30%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 21%
3.0–3.5% 16%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jul 2026
<1.0%
8%
1.0–1.5%
9%
1.5–2.0%
20%
2.0–2.5%
26%
2.5–3.0%
21%
3.0–3.5%
16%
≥3.5%
7%
1.5–2.0% 30%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 21%
3.0–3.5% 16%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jul 2026
<1.0%
$593 Vol.
8%
1.0–1.5%
$353 Vol.
9%
1.5–2.0%
$293 Vol.
20%
2.0–2.5%
$536 Vol.
26%
2.5–3.0%
$420 Vol.
21%
3.0–3.5%
$661 Vol.
16%
≥3.5%
$509 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent U.S. economic releases and the inflation trajectory from the Iran-related energy shock are anchoring trader sentiment in the US GDP growth in Q2 2026 market. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 2.0 percent annualized real GDP expansion for Q1 2026, supported by business investment in AI equipment and software, while consumer spending moderated amid weather disruptions and higher energy costs. With April CPI rising to 3.8 percent year-over-year and core PCE near 3.2 percent, market-implied odds cluster tightly between the 2.0–2.5 percent and 2.5–3.0 percent bands at 25.5 percent and 21.0 percent respectively. Analysts project modest Q2 acceleration toward 2.1–2.2 percent as fiscal tailwinds from prior tax measures offset tariff and oil-price headwinds, yet resilient nonfarm payrolls near 178,000 and a 4.3 percent unemployment rate leave room for variance. The closely matched probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve’s extended pause will sustain momentum or whether persistent inflation above 3 percent will cap consumer outlays before the July advance estimate.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Volumen
$3,365Fecha de finalización
30 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent U.S. economic releases and the inflation trajectory from the Iran-related energy shock are anchoring trader sentiment in the US GDP growth in Q2 2026 market. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 2.0 percent annualized real GDP expansion for Q1 2026, supported by business investment in AI equipment and software, while consumer spending moderated amid weather disruptions and higher energy costs. With April CPI rising to 3.8 percent year-over-year and core PCE near 3.2 percent, market-implied odds cluster tightly between the 2.0–2.5 percent and 2.5–3.0 percent bands at 25.5 percent and 21.0 percent respectively. Analysts project modest Q2 acceleration toward 2.1–2.2 percent as fiscal tailwinds from prior tax measures offset tariff and oil-price headwinds, yet resilient nonfarm payrolls near 178,000 and a 4.3 percent unemployment rate leave room for variance. The closely matched probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve’s extended pause will sustain momentum or whether persistent inflation above 3 percent will cap consumer outlays before the July advance estimate.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volumen
$3,365Fecha de finalización
30 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. economic releases and the inflation trajectory from the Iran-related energy shock are anchoring trader sentiment in the US GDP growth in Q2 2026 market. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 2.0 percent annualized real GDP expansion for Q1 2026, supported by business investment in AI equipment and software, while consumer spending moderated amid weather disruptions and higher energy costs. With April CPI rising to 3.8 percent year-over-year and core PCE near 3.2 percent, market-implied odds cluster tightly between the 2.0–2.5 percent and 2.5–3.0 percent bands at 25.5 percent and 21.0 percent respectively. Analysts project modest Q2 acceleration toward 2.1–2.2 percent as fiscal tailwinds from prior tax measures offset tariff and oil-price headwinds, yet resilient nonfarm payrolls near 178,000 and a 4.3 percent unemployment rate leave room for variance. The closely matched probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve’s extended pause will sustain momentum or whether persistent inflation above 3 percent will cap consumer outlays before the July advance estimate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes