Recent rainfall across southern Germany and the Alpine headwaters has begun lifting Rhine gauge readings from mid-August record lows, with Kaub rising from near 10 cm to around 70 cm and similar modest gains at other stations. Traders appear to price in additional precipitation and typical late-summer inflows as sufficient to restore normal navigation depths within days, producing near-certain consensus on a return before September 1. Persistent low-water constraints still limit fully loaded barges and force partial loads or modal shifts, yet the market reflects expectations of quick stabilization. Extended dry weather, below-average upstream runoff, or delayed seasonal rains could realistically push recovery into mid-September or later.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuándo volverá el río Rin a sus niveles normales?
¿Cuándo volverá el río Rin a sus niveles normales?
Antes del 1 de septiembre de 2026 100.0%
1 - 14 de septiembre de 2026 <1%
15 - 30 de septiembre de 2026 <1%
1 - 31 de octubre de 2026 <1%
$114,890 Vol.
$114,890 Vol.
1 sep 2026
Antes del 1 de septiembre de 2026
Sí
1 - 14 de septiembre de 2026
No
15 - 30 de septiembre de 2026
No
1 - 31 de octubre de 2026
No
No vuelve antes del 1 de noviembre de 2026
No
Antes del 1 de septiembre de 2026 100.0%
1 - 14 de septiembre de 2026 <1%
15 - 30 de septiembre de 2026 <1%
1 - 31 de octubre de 2026 <1%
$114,890 Vol.
$114,890 Vol.
1 sep 2026
Antes del 1 de septiembre de 2026
$29,262 Vol.
Sí
1 - 14 de septiembre de 2026
$27,841 Vol.
No
15 - 30 de septiembre de 2026
$20,397 Vol.
No
1 - 31 de octubre de 2026
$21,235 Vol.
No
No vuelve antes del 1 de noviembre de 2026
$16,154 Vol.
No
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent rainfall across southern Germany and the Alpine headwaters has begun lifting Rhine gauge readings from mid-August record lows, with Kaub rising from near 10 cm to around 70 cm and similar modest gains at other stations. Traders appear to price in additional precipitation and typical late-summer inflows as sufficient to restore normal navigation depths within days, producing near-certain consensus on a return before September 1. Persistent low-water constraints still limit fully loaded barges and force partial loads or modal shifts, yet the market reflects expectations of quick stabilization. Extended dry weather, below-average upstream runoff, or delayed seasonal rains could realistically push recovery into mid-September or later.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volumen
$114,890Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: Sí
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Sí
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent rainfall across southern Germany and the Alpine headwaters has begun lifting Rhine gauge readings from mid-August record lows, with Kaub rising from near 10 cm to around 70 cm and similar modest gains at other stations. Traders appear to price in additional precipitation and typical late-summer inflows as sufficient to restore normal navigation depths within days, producing near-certain consensus on a return before September 1. Persistent low-water constraints still limit fully loaded barges and force partial loads or modal shifts, yet the market reflects expectations of quick stabilization. Extended dry weather, below-average upstream runoff, or delayed seasonal rains could realistically push recovery into mid-September or later.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$114,890Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: Sí
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Sí
Recent rainfall across southern Germany and the Alpine headwaters has begun lifting Rhine gauge readings from mid-August record lows, with Kaub rising from near 10 cm to around 70 cm and similar modest gains at other stations. Traders appear to price in additional precipitation and typical late-summer inflows as sufficient to restore normal navigation depths within days, producing near-certain consensus on a return before September 1. Persistent low-water constraints still limit fully loaded barges and force partial loads or modal shifts, yet the market reflects expectations of quick stabilization. Extended dry weather, below-average upstream runoff, or delayed seasonal rains could realistically push recovery into mid-September or later.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes