Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party seeks a fourth term in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round vote, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party carries the far-right banner after his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement. Recent national polls show the pair statistically tied or separated by just a few points in simulated runoff matchups, with Lula holding modest first-round leads amid economic pressures and his age of 80. Multiple right-wing contenders, including Romeu Zema of NOVO and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD, continue to fragment the opposition vote and could alter which candidates clear the threshold for the October 25 runoff. Trader consensus reflects this close contest, where shifts in polling averages, candidate withdrawals, or late economic indicators remain the primary variables that could reorder the field ahead of election day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Qué candidatos avanzarán a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil?
¿Qué candidatos avanzarán a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil?
$321,225 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
84%
Flavio Bolsonaro
72%
Fernando Haddad
8%
Michelle Bolsonaro
4%
Jair Bolsonaro
3%
Tarcisio de Freitas
3%
$321,225 Vol.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$135,114 Vol.
84%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$20,621 Vol.
72%
Fernando Haddad
$51,472 Vol.
8%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$26,646 Vol.
4%
Jair Bolsonaro
$11,325 Vol.
3%
Tarcisio de Freitas
$76,048 Vol.
3%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party seeks a fourth term in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round vote, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party carries the far-right banner after his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement. Recent national polls show the pair statistically tied or separated by just a few points in simulated runoff matchups, with Lula holding modest first-round leads amid economic pressures and his age of 80. Multiple right-wing contenders, including Romeu Zema of NOVO and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD, continue to fragment the opposition vote and could alter which candidates clear the threshold for the October 25 runoff. Trader consensus reflects this close contest, where shifts in polling averages, candidate withdrawals, or late economic indicators remain the primary variables that could reorder the field ahead of election day.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
Volumen
$321,225Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party seeks a fourth term in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round vote, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party carries the far-right banner after his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement. Recent national polls show the pair statistically tied or separated by just a few points in simulated runoff matchups, with Lula holding modest first-round leads amid economic pressures and his age of 80. Multiple right-wing contenders, including Romeu Zema of NOVO and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD, continue to fragment the opposition vote and could alter which candidates clear the threshold for the October 25 runoff. Trader consensus reflects this close contest, where shifts in polling averages, candidate withdrawals, or late economic indicators remain the primary variables that could reorder the field ahead of election day.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$321,225Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party seeks a fourth term in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round vote, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party carries the far-right banner after his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement. Recent national polls show the pair statistically tied or separated by just a few points in simulated runoff matchups, with Lula holding modest first-round leads amid economic pressures and his age of 80. Multiple right-wing contenders, including Romeu Zema of NOVO and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD, continue to fragment the opposition vote and could alter which candidates clear the threshold for the October 25 runoff. Trader consensus reflects this close contest, where shifts in polling averages, candidate withdrawals, or late economic indicators remain the primary variables that could reorder the field ahead of election day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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