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Elecciones·Trump

¿Quién ocupará el primer lugar en las primarias para el escaño de Nancy Pelosi en el Congreso (CA-11)?

icon for ¿Quién ocupará el primer lugar en las primarias para el escaño de Nancy Pelosi en el Congreso (CA-11)?
Elecciones·Trump

¿Quién ocupará el primer lugar en las primarias para el escaño de Nancy Pelosi en el Congreso (CA-11)?

Scott Wiener 87%

Saikat Chakrabarti 7.2%

Connie Chan 2.4%

Cole Bettles <1%

Polymarket

$357,865 Vol.

Scott Wiener 87%

Saikat Chakrabarti 7.2%

Connie Chan 2.4%

Cole Bettles <1%

Polymarket

$357,865 Vol.

Scott Wiener

$39,987 Vol.

87%

Saikat Chakrabarti

$23,596 Vol.

7%

Connie Chan

$206,212 Vol.

2%

Cole Bettles

$15,637 Vol.

<1%

Darren Helton

$19,351 Vol.

<1%

Jingchao Xiong

$41,386 Vol.

<1%

David Ganezer

$11,696 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Scott Wiener holds a commanding lead in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Nancy Pelosi in California’s 11th District because of his California Democratic Party endorsement, years of groundwork as a state senator and former San Francisco supervisor, and consistent polling advantages across demographic groups. Recent May 2026 surveys, including a San Francisco Chronicle poll, show him far ahead of Saikat Chakrabarti and Connie Chan, who remain locked in a tight contest for second place ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Chakrabarti’s self-funded campaign and progressive Justice Democrats background, along with Chan’s labor and local supervisor support, have not yet narrowed the gap despite recent candidate forums and fundraising activity. Trader consensus on these probabilities reflects Wiener’s established institutional advantages and the district’s safe Democratic character.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$357,865
Fecha de finalización
2 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 24, 2025, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Scott Wiener holds a commanding lead in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Nancy Pelosi in California’s 11th District because of his California Democratic Party endorsement, years of groundwork as a state senator and former San Francisco supervisor, and consistent polling advantages across demographic groups. Recent May 2026 surveys, including a San Francisco Chronicle poll, show him far ahead of Saikat Chakrabarti and Connie Chan, who remain locked in a tight contest for second place ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Chakrabarti’s self-funded campaign and progressive Justice Democrats background, along with Chan’s labor and local supervisor support, have not yet narrowed the gap despite recent candidate forums and fundraising activity. Trader consensus on these probabilities reflects Wiener’s established institutional advantages and the district’s safe Democratic character.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$357,865
Fecha de finalización
2 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 24, 2025, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Quién ocupará el primer lugar en las primarias para el escaño de Nancy Pelosi en el Congreso (CA-11)?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 7 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Scott Wiener" con 87%, seguido de "Saikat Chakrabarti" con 7%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 87¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 87% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Quién ocupará el primer lugar en las primarias para el escaño de Nancy Pelosi en el Congreso (CA-11)?" ha generado $357.9K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 24, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Quién ocupará el primer lugar en las primarias para el escaño de Nancy Pelosi en el Congreso (CA-11)?", explora los 7 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Quién ocupará el primer lugar en las primarias para el escaño de Nancy Pelosi en el Congreso (CA-11)?" es "Scott Wiener" con 87%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 87% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Saikat Chakrabarti" con 7%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Quién ocupará el primer lugar en las primarias para el escaño de Nancy Pelosi en el Congreso (CA-11)?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.