Hurricane Lowell's track, steered by a weakening high-pressure ridge and interaction with nearby systems, carried its center just west of Kauai and Niihau as a Category 2 storm on September 7-8, with the eye remaining offshore according to National Hurricane Center observations. Rapid weakening from prior Category 5 intensity over cooler waters, combined with consistent model consensus on a north-northeast path, eliminated any realistic landfall window. Trader consensus at 100% for no landfall reflects this verified outcome, where official criteria—center crossing land—were not met despite widespread impacts from the large circulation. No further developments can alter the resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿El huracán Lowell tocará tierra en Hawái?
¿El huracán Lowell tocará tierra en Hawái?
Sí
<1% probabilidad
$1,036 Vol.
$1,036 Vol.
12 sep 2026
Sí
<1% probabilidad
$1,036 Vol.
$1,036 Vol.
12 sep 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hurricane Lowell makes landfall in Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) or National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and September 12, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lowell must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Lowell is classified as a tropical storm, a tropical depression, or a post-tropical cyclone at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline, this market will resolve to "No".
Whether a landfall occurred in Hawaii is determined solely by the official CPHC or NHC advisories. If those advisories report that Lowell made landfall in Hawaii, or on any island, atoll, reef, or shoal that those advisories identify as part of Hawaii, that landfall counts for the purposes of this market. This market applies no independent geographic definition of Hawaii, and no geographic boundary other than the one the CPHC or NHC advisories apply.
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC or NHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market will resolve based on the initial CPHC or NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lowell's intensity downward at the time of landfall. In the event that the CPHC or NHC do not publish landfall data for Hurricane Lowell by September 12, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the CPHC or NHC become unavailable, this market will resolve "No".Hurricane Lowell's track, steered by a weakening high-pressure ridge and interaction with nearby systems, carried its center just west of Kauai and Niihau as a Category 2 storm on September 7-8, with the eye remaining offshore according to National Hurricane Center observations. Rapid weakening from prior Category 5 intensity over cooler waters, combined with consistent model consensus on a north-northeast path, eliminated any realistic landfall window. Trader consensus at 100% for no landfall reflects this verified outcome, where official criteria—center crossing land—were not met despite widespread impacts from the large circulation. No further developments can alter the resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hurricane Lowell makes landfall in Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) or National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and September 12, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lowell must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Lowell is classified as a tropical storm, a tropical depression, or a post-tropical cyclone at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline, this market will resolve to "No".
Whether a landfall occurred in Hawaii is determined solely by the official CPHC or NHC advisories. If those advisories report that Lowell made landfall in Hawaii, or on any island, atoll, reef, or shoal that those advisories identify as part of Hawaii, that landfall counts for the purposes of this market. This market applies no independent geographic definition of Hawaii, and no geographic boundary other than the one the CPHC or NHC advisories apply.
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC or NHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market will resolve based on the initial CPHC or NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lowell's intensity downward at the time of landfall. In the event that the CPHC or NHC do not publish landfall data for Hurricane Lowell by September 12, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the CPHC or NHC become unavailable, this market will resolve "No".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lowell must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Lowell is classified as a tropical storm, a tropical depression, or a post-tropical cyclone at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline, this market will resolve to "No".
Whether a landfall occurred in Hawaii is determined solely by the official CPHC or NHC advisories. If those advisories report that Lowell made landfall in Hawaii, or on any island, atoll, reef, or shoal that those advisories identify as part of Hawaii, that landfall counts for the purposes of this market. This market applies no independent geographic definition of Hawaii, and no geographic boundary other than the one the CPHC or NHC advisories apply.
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC or NHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market will resolve based on the initial CPHC or NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lowell's intensity downward at the time of landfall. In the event that the CPHC or NHC do not publish landfall data for Hurricane Lowell by September 12, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the CPHC or NHC become unavailable, this market will resolve "No".
Mercado abierto: Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
Volumen
$1,036Fecha de finalización
13 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hurricane Lowell makes landfall in Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) or National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and September 12, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lowell must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Lowell is classified as a tropical storm, a tropical depression, or a post-tropical cyclone at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline, this market will resolve to "No".
Whether a landfall occurred in Hawaii is determined solely by the official CPHC or NHC advisories. If those advisories report that Lowell made landfall in Hawaii, or on any island, atoll, reef, or shoal that those advisories identify as part of Hawaii, that landfall counts for the purposes of this market. This market applies no independent geographic definition of Hawaii, and no geographic boundary other than the one the CPHC or NHC advisories apply.
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC or NHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market will resolve based on the initial CPHC or NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lowell's intensity downward at the time of landfall. In the event that the CPHC or NHC do not publish landfall data for Hurricane Lowell by September 12, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the CPHC or NHC become unavailable, this market will resolve "No".Hurricane Lowell's track, steered by a weakening high-pressure ridge and interaction with nearby systems, carried its center just west of Kauai and Niihau as a Category 2 storm on September 7-8, with the eye remaining offshore according to National Hurricane Center observations. Rapid weakening from prior Category 5 intensity over cooler waters, combined with consistent model consensus on a north-northeast path, eliminated any realistic landfall window. Trader consensus at 100% for no landfall reflects this verified outcome, where official criteria—center crossing land—were not met despite widespread impacts from the large circulation. No further developments can alter the resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hurricane Lowell makes landfall in Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) or National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and September 12, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lowell must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Lowell is classified as a tropical storm, a tropical depression, or a post-tropical cyclone at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline, this market will resolve to "No".
Whether a landfall occurred in Hawaii is determined solely by the official CPHC or NHC advisories. If those advisories report that Lowell made landfall in Hawaii, or on any island, atoll, reef, or shoal that those advisories identify as part of Hawaii, that landfall counts for the purposes of this market. This market applies no independent geographic definition of Hawaii, and no geographic boundary other than the one the CPHC or NHC advisories apply.
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC or NHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market will resolve based on the initial CPHC or NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lowell's intensity downward at the time of landfall. In the event that the CPHC or NHC do not publish landfall data for Hurricane Lowell by September 12, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the CPHC or NHC become unavailable, this market will resolve "No".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lowell must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Lowell is classified as a tropical storm, a tropical depression, or a post-tropical cyclone at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline, this market will resolve to "No".
Whether a landfall occurred in Hawaii is determined solely by the official CPHC or NHC advisories. If those advisories report that Lowell made landfall in Hawaii, or on any island, atoll, reef, or shoal that those advisories identify as part of Hawaii, that landfall counts for the purposes of this market. This market applies no independent geographic definition of Hawaii, and no geographic boundary other than the one the CPHC or NHC advisories apply.
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC or NHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market will resolve based on the initial CPHC or NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lowell's intensity downward at the time of landfall. In the event that the CPHC or NHC do not publish landfall data for Hurricane Lowell by September 12, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the CPHC or NHC become unavailable, this market will resolve "No".
Volumen
$1,036Fecha de finalización
13 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Hurricane Lowell's track, steered by a weakening high-pressure ridge and interaction with nearby systems, carried its center just west of Kauai and Niihau as a Category 2 storm on September 7-8, with the eye remaining offshore according to National Hurricane Center observations. Rapid weakening from prior Category 5 intensity over cooler waters, combined with consistent model consensus on a north-northeast path, eliminated any realistic landfall window. Trader consensus at 100% for no landfall reflects this verified outcome, where official criteria—center crossing land—were not met despite widespread impacts from the large circulation. No further developments can alter the resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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