Iran maintains de facto administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island through IRGC garrisons, missile systems, and naval facilities, despite longstanding UAE sovereignty claims dating to the 1971 seizure. US strikes on the island and nearby Greater Tunb during the 2026 Iran conflict targeted IRGC positions but did not dislodge Iranian forces, with a subsequent ceasefire leaving the status quo intact. Diplomatic efforts by the UAE, GCC, and Arab League continue to press for resolution via negotiations or the ICJ, while Iran reinforces its presence with new deployments and exercises near the Strait of Hormuz. Trader consensus reflects the absence of any ground operation or negotiated handover that would meet market resolution criteria for loss of primary control.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAbu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$97,230 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
1%
$97,230 Vol.
September 30
$3,832 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains de facto administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island through IRGC garrisons, missile systems, and naval facilities, despite longstanding UAE sovereignty claims dating to the 1971 seizure. US strikes on the island and nearby Greater Tunb during the 2026 Iran conflict targeted IRGC positions but did not dislodge Iranian forces, with a subsequent ceasefire leaving the status quo intact. Diplomatic efforts by the UAE, GCC, and Arab League continue to press for resolution via negotiations or the ICJ, while Iran reinforces its presence with new deployments and exercises near the Strait of Hormuz. Trader consensus reflects the absence of any ground operation or negotiated handover that would meet market resolution criteria for loss of primary control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 11:05 AM ET
Volume
$97,230End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains de facto administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island through IRGC garrisons, missile systems, and naval facilities, despite longstanding UAE sovereignty claims dating to the 1971 seizure. US strikes on the island and nearby Greater Tunb during the 2026 Iran conflict targeted IRGC positions but did not dislodge Iranian forces, with a subsequent ceasefire leaving the status quo intact. Diplomatic efforts by the UAE, GCC, and Arab League continue to press for resolution via negotiations or the ICJ, while Iran reinforces its presence with new deployments and exercises near the Strait of Hormuz. Trader consensus reflects the absence of any ground operation or negotiated handover that would meet market resolution criteria for loss of primary control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$97,230End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains de facto administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island through IRGC garrisons, missile systems, and naval facilities, despite longstanding UAE sovereignty claims dating to the 1971 seizure. US strikes on the island and nearby Greater Tunb during the 2026 Iran conflict targeted IRGC positions but did not dislodge Iranian forces, with a subsequent ceasefire leaving the status quo intact. Diplomatic efforts by the UAE, GCC, and Arab League continue to press for resolution via negotiations or the ICJ, while Iran reinforces its presence with new deployments and exercises near the Strait of Hormuz. Trader consensus reflects the absence of any ground operation or negotiated handover that would meet market resolution criteria for loss of primary control.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions